At 5 p.m. MDT on Friday, inside the Sphere in Las Vegas, the 2024 NHL draft will begin and, for the first time ever, a Utah-based team will participate.
Utah Hockey Club — as Utah’s new NHL franchise will be called during the 2024-25 season — isn’t set up to be just a basic participant, though. UHC has the largest collections of picks of any team in the draft, 13 in total across seven rounds, including the No. 6 pick in the first round. Seven of Utah’s 13 picks are in the first three rounds.
Barring trades, Utah Hockey Club should be the talk of the draft based on sheer volume, to say nothing of Utah being new to the league, at least in name, after the move from Arizona. So it would seem that new supporters should tune in.
In truth, though, it’s also possible to make a case not to watch the 2024 NHL draft.
Picks, picks and more picks
As mentioned above, the biggest draw regarding Utah and the coming NHL draft is the sheer amount of selections UHC could make.
With 13 picks, Utah Hockey Club has the most in the 2024 NHL draft, just ahead of the Montreal Canadiens, who have 12 picks, and the Philadelphia Flyers with 10.
The large amount of selections is the continuation of a trend for the franchise, as Arizona loaded up on draft picks in recent years as part of a long and significant rebuild. That rebuild isn’t over either, as UHC will have seven picks in the first three rounds of the 2025 draft, too.
So many selections will help new fans get a better understanding as to how Utah’s front office approaches team building.
Right now, Utah is known for its high scoring potential, with three 20 goal scorers under 26 already on the roster in forward and co-captain Lawson Crouse, 26; Matias Maccelli, 23; and Logan Cooley, 19.
Where UHC is lacking is in defensemen, and NHL draft projections already err on the side of Utah going that direction early in the draft.
It is also notable that many of the younger more promising players already on the team and in the farm system could quickly price themselves out of Utah in the coming seasons. (The NHL operates with a hard cap, which means teams cannot exceed the salary cap and if they attempt to do so, they can face a loss of draft picks, players and other punishments.) That puts a premium on young, cheap talent for the franchise.
Making 13 selections in a single draft is an opportunity to take some swings and prepare for the future, whatever that might look like.
Most of the players drafted won’t make it to the NHL
Thirteen draft picks sounds exciting, but there is a reality about drafts that cannot be ignored.
Most of the players UHC selects this week won’t ever make it to the NHL. Instead, they’ll live out their professional careers in the minor leagues, such as the AHL and ECHL.
And even among the players who do make it to the NHL, most fail to play in even 50 games in their careers.
That is just the way the sport works.
Per data compiled by Sound of Hockey, 82% of first-round picks (from 2000 to 2012, a time period chosen to allow time for even the slowest developing prospect to make it to the NHL) went on to play at least 50 NHL games in their careers. That sounds good and is, all things considered. From there, there is a steep drop-off though, with only 42% of second-round picks doing the same.
For third-round selections, only 32% played in 50 or more NHL games. For players selected in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds, only around 20% — 24% for fourth rounders, 23% for fifth rounders and 20% for sixth rounders — played in 50 or more NHL games in their careers. And for seventh-round selections, the percentage dropped all the way to 14%.
UHC has only one first-round selection this season and three picks in the second round.
Odds are maybe two of those selections go on and play meaningful minutes/games for the Utah Hockey Club in their careers.
UHC has an enviable farm system
There is reason to be hopeful, though, that at least a decent portion of the players Utah selects will end up making some sort of impact for the franchise.
That is because currently, Utah is rated as having the No. 7 farm system in the league by The Hockey Writers and No. 9 overall by The Athletic.
Utah’s top prospects include players like Conor Geekie, Victor Söderstrom, Dmitri Simashev, Daniil But and Michael Hrabal, per Logan Horn, and on the whole, Utah’s prospect pool is “a really solid group of young talent that they hope will help (UHC) emerge from the ashes as a competitive playoff team.”
Last year, Arizona selected a pair of Russian-based prospects that likely won’t be in the NHL anytime soon, but Horn believes that was the right approach, not only for the pipeline but for the benefit of the team in the long term.
“Selecting Dmitri Simashev and Daniil But with the sixth and 12th overall picks respectively in the 2023 Draft was a controversial choice, but I think it makes a whole lot of sense for Arizona,” Horn wrote for The Hockey Writers. “Not only did they get two prospects who add size and a ton of potential to their lineup, but they added players who are under contract in Russia for several more seasons each, meaning that they’ll be ready to join the team around the time that they will hopefully be establishing themselves as a competitive group.”
The Athletic is slightly less optimistic about Utah’s farm system, but it still views the current group of prospects as having significant promise, meaning the front office has done well in previous drafts, leading to an expectation that more talent can be found this year.
UHC general manager Bill Armstrong noted that the excess of picks only gives Utah an even better shot at building a championship team.
“This is a great time for us obviously going into the draft because of the amount of picks we have, because it gives us options,” he said. “Adding more prospects to this organization is a great thing and will give us a chance to be a championship team in the future.”
It will take years for draft picks to make it to Utah
Perhaps the most obvious reason to not tune into the draft is that most of the players whose names are called won’t be playing for UHC any time soon.
Sometimes it takes more than half a decade for a pick to make his NHL debut.
Per Sound of Hockey (looking at players drafted from 2000 to 2017), first-round picks are almost the only players to make their NHL debut the year they were drafted. More specifically, though, top five picks are the only players who appear in 30 or more games the year they are drafted.
Selections in the six to 10 range play in roughly 10 to 20 games that first year and every first-round selection after 10 has a tough time cracking an NHL roster in their first season, the article said.
For everyone who isn’t a first-round pick, NHL debuts are much more likely to come years after they are drafted. Even for first rounders not in the top five of their draft, the average is three or four years after being drafted for them to make their NHL debut.
It took first-round draftees from 2000 to 2017 roughly six years from when they were drafted to when they played in 50 or more NHL games, Sound of Hockey found.
For second-round draftees during that same time period, it took six years to play in just over 20 NHL games.
If draftees are going to make it to the NHL, most do it by year six or seven of their professional careers. But that means that it will be six or seven years before most of the players whose names are called out this year will possibly affect winning (or losing) for Utah.
To watch or not to watch
With this draft being the first that Utah has taken part in as Utah Hockey Club, it will no doubt be of interest to fans.
For good reason too. Thirteen picks in a single draft is notable, and Utah Hockey Club will make its mark early and often.
But there are also clear reasons not to tune in and instead wait for the NHL preseason to start in September, as most of the players selected won’t impact UHC for years, if they ever do at all.
Regardless of what you decide, first-round action starts Friday night, and with it, NHL hockey in Utah.