Two weeks ago, BYU was in prime position to reach the Big 12 championship game and was a popular talking point in College Football Playoff discussions.
But after back-to-back losses to Kansas and Arizona State, respectively, the Cougars find themselves needing to snap a two-game losing streak — and receive some help — to reach the Big 12 title game.
Thankfully for BYU, Colorado also lost on Saturday — falling to Kansas 37-21 — and that gives the Cougars more hope that they can still reach the conference title game going into Week 14, the final week of the regular season.
Who is still in competition to clinch a berth in the Big 12 football championship game?
Going into the final week of the regular season, there is a four-way tie atop the Big 12 standings:
- Arizona State — 6-2
- BYU — 6-2
- Colorado — 6-2
- Iowa State — 6-2
There are also five teams within one game of the league leaders:
- Baylor — 5-3
- Kansas State — 5-3
- TCU — 5-3
- Texas Tech — 5-3
- West Virginia — 5-3
Who are each of the teams in competition for a Big 12 championship spot playing in Week 14?
Only one of the four teams tied for the Big 12 lead, Iowa State, is playing a team with a winning record in league play during the regular season’s final week.
Friday
- Colorado — vs. Oklahoma State (0-8 in Big 12 play)
Saturday
- Arizona State — at Arizona (2-6)
- Baylor — vs. Kansas (4-4)
- BYU — vs. Houston (3-5)
- Iowa State — vs. Kansas State (5-3)
- Kansas State — at Iowa State (6-2)
- Texas Tech — vs. West Virginia (5-3)
- TCU — at Cincinnati (3-5)
- West Virginia — at Texas Tech (5-3)
Does BYU control its own destiny to the Big 12 championship game?
No. With two straight losses and how Saturday transpired, the Cougars no longer control their own destiny to make it into the Big 12 championship, which will be held Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Had Iowa State lost to Utah late Saturday night, BYU would have just needed a win next week to clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game, but the Cyclones rallied past the Utes to win 31-28.
If Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State all win in Week 14 and finish tied at 7-2 in conference play, the Big 12 championship game will pit Arizona State as the No. 1 seed against Iowa State as the No. 2 seed, according to The Athletic’s Max Olson.
Conversely, if BYU wins next week, any sort of two-way tie the Cougars would be involved in would assure them a spot in the Big 12 championship.
What is BYU’s most clear path to the Big 12 championship game?
While there are mathematically several potential scenarios wherein BYU could be tied with two or more teams for the Big 12 lead following Week 14, let’s take a look at the most likely scenario, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
FPI currently gives BYU an 86.5% chance of beating Houston, Arizona State a 70.6% chance of beating Arizona, Colorado an 82.9% chance of beating Oklahoma State and Iowa State a 57.8% chance of beating Kansas State.
Given those numbers, BYU would need one upset to happen and win itself.
The simplest path for BYU to make it to the Big 12 championship game is this:
- BYU beats Houston AND
- Kansas State beats Iowa State
In that scenario, Arizona State would be the No. 1 seed and BYU would earn the No. 2 seed.
Even if that results in a three-way tie between Arizona State, BYU and Colorado, the Sun Devils would receive the top seed based on Big 12 tiebreaking rules, then the Cougars would earn the tiebreaker over the Buffaloes based on BYU’s 6-1 record against common conference opponents, while Colorado has a 5-2 record against common conference opponents, according to this site, and another site, that sort through the Big 12 tiebreaking scenarios.
What if Arizona State loses to Arizona?
Another potential scenario that would work in BYU’s favor is if Arizona were to upset Arizona State.
The Sun Devils are the only team of the four tied for the Big 12 lead that BYU will have played in the regular season, and while ASU owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, an Arizona State loss and a BYU win next week would give the Cougars a one-game edge over the Sun Devils in Big 12 play.
In summary, this would also result in BYU making the Big 12 championship:
- BYU beats Houston AND
- Arizona beats Arizona State
If BYU, Colorado and Iowa State all finished tied for the Big 12 lead at 7-2, the Cyclones would be the No. 1 seed and the Cougars the No. 2 seed, according to the aforementioned Big 12 tiebreaking scenario sites here and here.
Again, it comes down to common conference opponents that would give BYU the edge over Colorado.
Iowa State, meanwhile, would be the No. 1 seed over BYU because of conference opponent win percentage, or the Cyclones’ superior strength of schedule against all conference opponents, according to the sites mentioned above.