Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.
There’s one Big 12 game in the final week of the regular season that will have no bearing whatsoever on the league race in Week 14 — that is Utah playing at UCF.
No, Friday night’s matchup (6 p.m. MST, Fox) is between two 4-7 teams who have no chance to make the postseason.
What will happen when Utah and UCF meet in Orlando?
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Friday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and one of the programs ran away with a win.
How the simulation was set up
There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.
Injuries and depth chart movement were also implemented. This week, QB5 Luke Bottari is inserted into the starting lineup for Utah after Isaac Wilson suffered an injury last week.
How accurate was the simulation of Utah’s last game?
The actual score: Iowa State 31, Utah 28
College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah 24, Iowa State 17
My analysis: The simulation called for an upset, and in the actual game, Utah took a fourth-quarter lead on a 91-yard Bottari-led touchdown drive, minutes after a blocked punt for a touchdown brought the Utes closer.
The actual game and the simulation differed, though, in who would score the game-winner in the final few minutes — in the simulation, Utah capitalized on a turnover to score the winning touchdown, but in reality, the Cyclones went on a long game-winning touchdown possession after the Bottari TD drive.
How did the simulation between Utah and UCF play out?
Final score: UCF 31, Utah 3
Key sequence: Even though Utah was down 10-0 late in the second quarter, it looked like the Utes could stay within striking distance at halftime.
Utah, though, came up short on a third-down play with just over a minute until halftime, forcing the Utes to punt the ball back to UCF with 43 seconds until the break.
Unfortunately for the Utes, that was more than enough time for the Knights to score again.
Dylan Rizk hit Chauncey Magwood on a 65-yard bomb on the first play of the ensuing drive, and that set up a 3-yard RJ Harvey touchdown to cap a two-play scoring drive, making it 17-0 at halftime.
How the simulation transpired: This was the largest projected loss for Utah in a simulation all season — perhaps the video game is ready for the Utes’ year to be done, too.
Neither team scored in the first quarter, but the Knights had the biggest play of the quarter when Nyjalik Kelly recovered a Micah Bernard fumble at the Utah 37 late in the first.
That set up the game’s first score, as Trent Whittemore caught a 25-yard pass that advanced the ball to the Utah 1, then Harvey scored on a 1-yard run on third and goal to make it 7-0.
Following a Utah three and out, UCF added a 42-yard field goal on its next drive to make it 10-0 — Logan Fano nearly ended the possession, though he dropped an interception on third down one play before the field goal.
Late in the first half, Harvey’s second touchdown of the day gave UCF its aforementioned 17-0 halftime lead.
Utah’s most promising drive of the day came in the back half of the third quarter, as Dorian Singer caught a 32-yard pass on third and 15 to move the ball to the UCF 38.
Bernard then ripped off an 18-yard run, and an 18-yard Singer catch pushed the Utes inside the 10 at the 7.
The Utes couldn’t find the end zone, though, as they moved backward over the next three plays, and that set up a 29-yard Cole Becker field goal to make it 17-3.
UCF then put the game away with back-to-back touchdowns midway through the fourth quarter.
First, Evan Morris caught a 3-yard touchdown to cap an 82-yard drive to make the score 24-3.
Then, on Utah’s ensuing possession, Bottari was intercepted by Brandon Adams, who returned it 50 yards for a pick-six with 4:02 to play.
The Utes’ final drive of the season also ended in a turnover, as Bottari was intercepted in the end zone.
Star players: Bottari threw for 229 passing yards, though he also had two interceptions — both in the fourth quarter. Landen King caught seven passes for 83 yards.
Bernard finished with 60 rushing yards and two catches for 11 yards.
Defensively for Utah, Connor O’Toole had five tackles and two sacks.
Rizk threw for 240 yards and one touchdown for UCF, with Magwood catching four passes for 110 yards.
Harvey also 90 hard-earned rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Key stats: UCF held the edge in total yards, with 338 to Utah’s 267, and the Knights finished with 98 rushing yards to 38 for the Utes.
Utah, though, was undone by three turnovers, while UCF had zero turnovers in the game.
How realistic was the simulation?
My analysis: As bad as things have been for Utah during its seven-game losing streak, it would be surprising to see things go like this in the regular-season finale.
The Utes have been competitive into the fourth quarter in every loss, even when they lost at Colorado, and most have been one-score games.
Utah could well lose, but it would be surprising to see it happen by such a wide margin.