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Everyone knows that the Utah Jazz have been playing out the 2024-25 season with the hopes of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft (so they can pick consensus top pick Cooper Flagg).
But, since the three teams with the worst record through the regular season all have a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, many fans have been wondering why the Jazz seem to be gunning for the worst overall record. Isn’t bottom three good enough?
No. The worst overall record in the regular season not only guarantees best odds at the No. 1 overall pick, but also ensures that the lowest a team will pick is No. 5.
Using the numbers one through 14, there are 1,001 possible four-number combinations. For the NBA draft lottery, 1,000 of those four-number combinations are assigned to the lottery teams. The three teams with the worst record are each assigned 140 number combinations (14%) and a lower number of combinations are assigned to the other lottery teams.
Ping-Pong balls numbered one through 14 are dropped into a lottery machine and the team with the number combination that matches the first four balls selected is awarded the No. 1 overall draft pick. The team with the next four-ball combination selected gets the No. 2 overall pick, and this continues for the top four picks.
After the top four draft picks are assigned through the lottery, the remainder of the lottery teams are assigned picks five through 14 based on the inverse of regular-season record. This is where the importance of having the worst overall record comes in.
Though the three worst regular-season teams will have the best odds at the No. 1 overall pick (more Ping-Pong combinations than other teams), teams with less favorable odds can jump into the top four. It happens every year.
But, because the fifth pick is awarded to the remaining team with the worst regular season record, that is the lowest possible pick for the team with the worst overall record. That means that the team with the second-worst record will pick no lower than sixth and the third-worst record no lower than seventh in the draft.
But what if two teams have identical records at the end of the season? What are the tiebreakers?
Ties for playoff positioning are determined by a number of tiebreakers that take into account head-to-head records, divisional records, conference records, etc. But for draft position, ties are decided by a coin flip.
So, the Jazz don’t want to leave anything to chance. They don’t want to tie with the Washington Wizards and then end up missing out on a chance to draft Flagg based on a coin flip. And they don’t want to have spent the whole season tanking their hearts out just to end up with the seventh overall pick.
To have the best chance at the top pick and a guaranteed top-five pick, the Jazz need the worst NBA regular-season record, period.
But even then, it’s good to understand that the odds are slim to get the top pick. While the bottom three teams in the regular season have the “best” odds (14%) at winning the No. 1 pick, that means that there is an 86% chance that the Jazz end up with a two-to-five pick.
So, while the worst teams in the league are all hoping that they end up with a chance to draft Flagg with the No. 1 pick, odds are actually against them. The best the Jazz can do is ensure that they have the worst record without a tie at the end of the season.
You have to keep in mind that the language used during the draft lottery is important. Things like “odds” and “chance” are not guarantees. There is a lot of luck that goes into lottery night.
New with the Jazz
Quote of the week
“You ultimately will get judged the most when things don’t go well for you. And especially when you’re in the NBA or in pro sports, people in general are looking for opportunities to pick at you, and they are waiting for you to act spoiled, or lazy or weak.” — Jazz coach Will Hardy
From the archives
Extra points
- Jazz rookie Cody Williams out for the rest of the season (Deseret News)
- Keyonte George needs to find a better way to deal with his frustration (Deseret News)
- How does the NCAA Tournament impact the NBA draft? Ask Thurl Bailey (Deseret News)
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- Memphis’ Ja Morant uses finger gun gesture despite league warning
- Rockets’ Dillon Brooks suspended after 16th technical foul
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- April 9 | 7 p.m. MDT | Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers | KJZZ
- April 11 | 7:30 p.m. MDT | Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | KJZZ