Bronco Mendenhall’s hire by Utah State has been praised plenty during the last six months. For good reason.
The Aggies’ new head football coach has a lot of cachet to his name, due to successful stints at BYU (99-43), Virginia (36-38) and New Mexico (5-7) prior to his arrival in Logan. As a result, many have been fans of the Utah State-Mendenhall pairing.
“This is an ideal fit for Mendenhall, a Utah native who coached at BYU for 13 seasons (11 as head coach) before leaving for Virginia,” The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel wrote in March. “He’s well-suited to lead the program into the rebuilt Pac-12 next year.”
Mandel gave the Mendenhall hire by Utah State an A+ grade, one of two A+ grades handed out by Mandel for the nearly 30-plus new hires across the FBS level. Others like CBS Sports’ Brandon Marcello and USA Today’s Tyler Nettuno handed out A grades for the Mendenhall-USU pairing.
Has Mendenhall’s arrival — and that of his staff — done much in raising the profile of USU football though? More to the point, are the Aggies expected to be better next season right off the bat under Mendenhall or is a long-term rebuild more the idea?
It depends on who you ask.
Per ESPN’s SP+ metric and the latest FPI (Football Power Index), the Aggies aren’t expected to be much better in 2025 than they were in 2024.
Maybe a little better, but not much.
SP+, created by Bill Connelly, has Utah State projected at No. 119 out of 136 FBS teams heading into the 2025 season, which is about the same position where the Aggies finished the 2024 season.
FPI, meanwhile, projects the Aggies to finish either No. 8 or No. 9 in the Mountain West Conference in 2025, definitively ahead of only Wyoming, Air Force and Nevada. USU is projected to win between four or five games — as a reminder, the Aggies won four games last season — and finish around No. 113 in the country.
Perhaps most interesting of all, USU isn’t given much of a chance at all of MW title contention (0.4%) and less than a 33% chance to win six games and become bowl eligible.
ESPN’s projections for Utah State football fall in line with others.
Teamrankings.com projects that the Aggies will win four games (4.2) and finish as the third-worst team in the MW. Bowl eligibility is viewed as something of a longshot too, with USU being given 26.1% chance to reach six wins.
Vegas Insider has the Aggies as the clear third-worst team in the MW in 2025, ahead of Nevada and New Mexico, but well behind San Diego State, Wyoming and Hawaii — the next closest teams in projections and MW championship odds.
It isn’t all doom and gloom, though.
Athlon Sports expects Utah State to be competitive under Mendenhall immediately, maybe even in contention for bowl eligibility.
“This season is full of unknowns, but it shouldn’t take Mendenhall long to right the ship,” the magazine’s preview for USU football reads. “He (Mendenhall) had New Mexico competitive last season, and you can expect the same at Utah State.”
College Sports Network, meanwhile, believes the Aggies will finish the season as a top-100 team in the country, ahead of the likes of the Houston Cougars, Kentucky Wildcats, Washington State Cougars, Stanford Cardinal and Mississippi State Bulldogs, among others.
In the MW, the Aggies are slotted ahead of San Diego State, Hawaii, Air Force, Wyoming, Nevada and New Mexico.
“Nate Dreiling was thrust into the spotlight following the dismissal of Blake Anderson ahead of the 2024 season, hardly setting the interim HC up for success,” CSN’s projection for USU football reads. “He’ll be replaced by Mendenhall, who arrives in Logan after helping New Mexico to an impressive season in the Mountain West. Circle the Oct. 25 clash between the two teams as one of the spicier games on the conference schedule.
“Mendenhall added several experienced and productive parts to a defense that ranked 129th in the country last year. While they should see some improvement on that side of the ball, question marks around an offense that lost Jalen Royals to the NFL and Rahsul Faison to South Carolina linger, especially with a schedule that ends with UNLV, Fresno State (both on the road) and Boise.”
Has Mendenhall garnered more respect for Utah State football?
In totality, the answer to that question is surely yes. But even with Mendenhall leading the way expectations for the Aggies in 2025 remain low — until proven otherwise.
