In the NBA, timing is everything.
That goes for not only the intricate and nuanced plays at any given moment on the court, but also the way teams build and at what point they are ready to contend for a title.
The upcoming 2026-27 season is a particularly interesting one when it comes to the state of the Western Conference, and it could be a turning point at which the power shifts.
So today we’re looking at the power balance in the West, where it stands, how it has shifted over the course of the last few months and what teams will be emerging as new powers. Spoiler alert: The Utah Jazz are one of those emerging powers.
The two-team top tier
Just about the only sure thing in the West is that there are two teams at the top and then everyone else underneath. There’s no doubt that the current ruling forces are the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
There have been some minor changes to the rosters for each of the two Western powerhouses, but the cores remain the same. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reigns in OKC and Victor Wembanyama’s NBA superstardom in San Antonio has only just begun.
The should-be tier
Just below the two towering powers in the West are the teams that should be at the top of the conference, but each team comes with questions and concerns.
Denver Nuggets: It remains true that Nikola Jokic is still one of the best basketball players in the world, and despite a number of injuries last season, the Nuggets still managed to finish third in the West. They should be able to do that again.
But … depth continues, as it has the last few years, to be a concern for the 2023 champs and it’s hard to imagine them rising to the top once again if everything rests on the health of Aaron Gordon.
Los Angeles Lakers: This is the restart of the Luka Dončić era in Los Angeles. It’s not just that LeBron James has left. There was a ton of roster turnover in the offseason and that includes the Lakers adding Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Matisse Thybulle and Kevon Looney.
Dončić is the kind of player that makes those around him better, and this should be a playoff team. But we don’t know if this is all going to work and if there will be enough defense outside of Kessler for the Lakers to be able to manage the length of the season.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards is an electric star and the Wolves have been in the upper echelon of the West for a few years now. The addition of LaMelo Ball should give Edwards some backcourt relief, but there’s definitely a feeling that the T-Wolves have reached their ceiling and that no retooling will help them into the top tier of the Western Conference.
Houston Rockets: After years of being in the West’s basement, Houston made some big moves and shot to the top, finishing with the second-best record in the West in 2025 and then fifth in 2026 despite playing the year without Fred VanVleet.
This team should be able to maintain a strong place in the playoff race, but the vibes just seem off. There’s the whole Kevin Durant of it all, and whether he actually likes his teammates, and then there’s the fit of everyone on the court, which isn’t perfect.
Each of these four teams could plummet out of Western Conference contention if there is an injury to a key player, if things don’t mesh perfectly, if decision-makers decide to make some big moves as sellers during the 2026-27 season, or if teams on the rise supplant them.
These teams should be good. But it wouldn’t shock anyone if they were to fall out of the top six in the West.
Last year’s play-in group
There isn’t really any evidence that the four teams that secured 2026 play-in spots have improved this offseason.
There were injuries that hurt the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors last season (Jalen Green and Jimmy Butler), but it’s hard to say that a healthy Green will propel the Suns, or that Butler, 36 and coming off an ACL tear, will make the Warriors a contender. Both of these teams could be preparing for a 2027 offseason that would be a last push to surround their stars (Stephen Curry and Devin Booker) with a winning roster.
The LA Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers are teams where uncertainty is the only certainty.
So much of the Clippers’ future depends on the Kawhi Leonard investigation and if he eventually is traded to the Toronto Raptors. If that resolves, it seems like the Clippers are set for a bit of a rebuild. They have some good young pieces and a dynamic backcourt, but they need to work on chemistry and addressing gaps on the roster.
The Blazers, well, they’re just guards and centers. They surprised last year with a late-season run that landed them in the play-in tournament, but then they turned in an offseason that made the roster even more confusing than it was before.
Teams that could shake up the West
Utah Jazz: The Jazz are the leader when it comes to an emerging team in the West. They’re a classic example of an on-paper team. On paper, they have the players and the talent that should make them at least a middle-of-the-pack team in the West. But they have a ton to prove.
Will Hardy’s tanking shackles will finally be taken off and Lauri Markkanen & Co. will be allowed to play to their fullest potential. What does that look like with Jaren Jackson Jr., Keyonte George, Ace Bailey and rookie Darryn Peterson? It should look like a team that is ready to supplant at least one of the previous play-in teams, and maybe even one of the middle-tier playoff teams.
Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd is out and Dusty May is in. Does Kyrie Irving fit the timeline of this now very young group? Probably not. But in his return from an ACL tear, he should be just the right kind of player to help Cooper Flagg and the rest of the Mavericks usher in a new era of basketball in Dallas. And don’t forget that this team still has a lot of the pieces that were able to make the Finals in 2024.
Memphis Grizzlies: They committed to moving on from Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant. This is definitely a team in a rebuild, but with young talent like Cam Boozer, Cedric Coward, Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells, if they ended up taking the place of a team like Portland in the play-in, it wouldn’t be a surprise.
The Western Conference is at a point where some of the biggest stars in the game are aging out, teams are rebuilding, and teams are making last-ditch efforts around star players. The timing is ripe for the power balance to shift a little and for teams to emerge as contenders.
