While the release of Briton Jack Mann, 77, by pro-Iranian kidnappers is a welcome further sign that the agonizing hostage issue in Lebanon may be inching toward a weary conclusion, there is still a long way to go. And the path is littered with countless pitfalls.
Mann is the fourth Westerner to be freed since August, but at least nine others - five Americans, a Briton, two Germans and an Italian - are still held by various Shiite Muslim factions linked to the Iranian-allied Hezbollah.Although influenced by Iran, the groups are not totally under Iranian control, and each has its own paranoid set of beliefs, goals and prejudices. None can be totally relied upon to do what they say.
In fact, the hostage-takers have a history of repeatedly issuing alternating threats and promises with no follow-through - an effort to catch and hold straying world attention.
However, there seem to be grounds for real hope that all will turn out well at last. An Iranian deputy foreign minister declared this week that "By January, all hostages, irrespective of their nationalities, will be able to go home." Some tireless mediation by U.N. Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar is credited for the progress to date.
Having all hostages free by January sounds like wonderful news, but such a sweeping deadline has not been mentioned before and should not be taken as an absolute. The history of hostage-taking in Lebanon, dating back to 1985, is littered with broken promises.
Israel released 51 Arabs on Sept. 11 as a goodwill gesture aimed at freeing hostages and after it had received information about some of its missing servicemen. Five Israelis remain unaccounted for. Some of the kidnappers demanded more releases but finally freed Mann in spite of the lack of further action by Israel.
If such alternating releases continue and nobody makes sudden, unreasonable demands - a common event in the whole hostage issue - then there is reason to hope that it may all be over in the next few months. But any hope should be diluted with healthy skepticism.
The kidnappers are small groups of fanatics and the holding of hostages gives them some sense of power over mighty Western nations. That power is really an illusion, but they may not be willing to give it up nonetheless. One can only wait and see.