Vaclav Havel is in political trouble two years after the "velvet revolution" swept him to the presidency. By midsummer, he may be out of power and the nation could disintegrate.
Havel's failure to achieve constitutional reform increase the chances that the federation of 10 million Czechs and 5 million Slovaks will dissolve.The two tough politicians likely to win leadership of the regions in June elections are seen as improbable partners for Havel, who was a dissident playwright before communism fell. That would make both his candidacy and re-election by the new federal parliament questionable.
"In two years, Czechoslovakia will no longer exist as one state," said Petr Uhl, a federal deputy.
Michael Zantovsky, spokesman for Havel, takes the opposite view: "A pessimist would say this country's doomed, but there are not many pessimists in this country."
Havel's record as a stubborn dissident proves his resilience and staying power. His political fortunes may rebound, but recent developments have not been promising.
Last week, the federal parliament rejected his two key proposals for resolving the fight between Czechs and Slovaks over how to devolve power so they remain together, yet each nation has a say in its own fate.
Havel withdrew a third proposal, on the future shape of the federal parliament, to avoid another defeat.
"It's unlikely anything else will get passed before the elections," Zantovsky said.
That means campaign season begins with the Czech-Slovak split an issue and ambitious politicians ready to exploit it. Both the regional and federal parliaments are to be elected in June.
Opinion polls indicate Vaclav Klaus, the staunchly capitalist federal finance minister, is the front-runner to become Czech premier. They show 21 percent support for his party, nearly double that of his closest rivals.
Politicians on all sides criticize how the sensitive issue of Slovakia has been handled by Havel and his advisers, most of whom are intellectuals rooted in Prague, the federal and Czech capital.