Last night, not the evening of the Nov. 8 election, may be Pat Shea's crowning moment in his race for the U.S. Senate.
Shea, the Democratic nominee, walked onto the Cottonwood High School stage at 7 p.m. and debated GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch for an hour live on the state's three major TV stations and across the nation on C-SPAN. It's what Shea always envisioned a Senate race would be like - lights glaring, going toe-to-toe with the 18-year incumbent on his record, taking tough stands on vital issues.If only it could have been two months ago. If only Shea could have gotten Hatch in his political sights sooner.
Because barring any unforeseen developments, the U.S. Senate race in Utah this year is looking very bad for Shea. Unless something happens - something big, very soon - the campaign is moving toward a Hatch victory.
Declaring victory or defeat three weeks from election day? Who's giving up?
Not Shea. "We still have three weeks to go. If the press declares the race over, then it will discourage people from turning out" to vote, said Shea, and that would be bad.
Hatch isn't declaring victory, either.
"We still have three big debates," said Charlie Evans, Hatch's campaign manager, before Wednesday night's debate. "But unless there's a major unforeseen shift in momentum - and that momentum is with Senator Hatch and has always been with him - then we are very confident of winning."
The evidence of a Hatch impending victory is there.
Hatch is so far ahead in the polls - 35 percentage points in the latest Deseret News/KSL poll - and has so much money - $700,000 in cash compared to Shea's paltry $28,000 - that a Shea comeback is unlikely. Shea touched on his chances at the close of the debate, bringing a laugh from the audience when he said a Shea victory "would certainly be a surprise."
Things are going so well for Hatch that his campaign will "go dark" the next two weeks. That is, Hatch won't even be running TV advertisements until the final week of the campaign. Even then, said Evans, Hatch will only have "a small buy" compared to what he could spend.
Shea realistically admits that unless "a miracle" happens he won't have the money for a significant TV buy before the election. Shea has been off the air since the first week in October and may not be back on again.
"Put it this way, three days after I announced against Senator Hatch, I was losing a golf game," Shea said in an interview before the debate. "On the last hole, down, I hit a hole in one and I won. Miracles do happen." Are his chances in the race on a par with hitting a hole in one? "I'd say it is more like getting an eagle," joked Shea.
On a serious note, Shea said he hopes for the big hit - the big swing - in the race. "Maybe it could be in the (Wednesday night) debate. Maybe not. You never know." It didn't happen in the debate; Hatch made no major gaffs.
But what can Shea do with $28,000? "Maybe the big check will come. But as of now the campaign will end in the black; I won't be putting any personal funds in" to pay off debts. Shea still has three local fund-raisers planned, "and there is interest out there. We will have radio and newspapers ads and perhaps a presence on TV as well" the final days of the campaign.
Hatch won't be running TV ads straight through to Election Day, said Evans, because "we don't want to look like we're being extravagant." "Sure," countered Shea, "I'd love to see what Charlie does if I close 10 points on Hatch. They have a lot of ads in the can, and they'll be running them then."
Hatch has even stopped fund raising in Utah. "Frankly, we couldn't go to anyone with the poll numbers in your (Deseret News/KSL) poll and ask for money. They'd laugh in our face," said Evans. Some Washington, D.C., money is still coming in "because of events we've held in the past - but nothing locally."
That doesn't mean the race is finished . . . well, at least no nails in Shea's coffin, yet.
"These debates are very important, and people should be watching," says Shea. "People want answers to questions, like why Senator Hatch held up SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) funding and cost Americans $19.5 million by doing so? How has he changed his office procedures so we don't see another involvement like BCCI?"
Political strategists say Shea had to make a run at Hatch over the late summer. Shea bought what TV time he could, ran ads criticizing Hatch as an 18-year incumbent, pounded Hatch for not agreeing to more debates, for raising a lot of special interest PAC money, not visiting Utah, etc.
But Shea didn't close on Hatch. With the Deseret News/KSL poll and other early October surveys showing Hatch still holding a 30-point-plus lead, fund raising for both camps dried up.
"I had commitments for $150,000," said Shea. "But that (Deseret News/KSL) poll stopped it" from turning into real cash. Shea believes that Dan Jones & Associates, the newspaper's and TV station's pollster, "manipulated" the poll to make Hatch and Independent Party candidate Craig Oliver look better. Jones is also polling for Hatch.
Jones denies he manipulated the poll. "I never have and I never will manipulate a poll, and Pat Shea knows better" than to say he did, said Jones. A Salt Lake Tribune poll, conducted by another pollster, had about the same spread between Hatch and Shea as the Deseret News/KSL survey.
"We have every confidence in Jones' work," said Don C. Wood-ward, Deseret News managing editor. "We wouldn't tolerate any manipulation of the poll. If it isn't credible, then we have no interest in it."
Evans said he's not surprised at winning but is surprised Shea's campaign didn't do better. "If you would have told me last spring that we'd be like this (so far ahead) three weeks from the election, well, I wouldn't have believed it." Back then incumbency was a stone around officeholders' necks. A throw-the-bums-out mentality prevailed.
But Shea couldn't capitalize. Shea's showing "isn't a comment on Pat - he's been a viable, good candidate," said Evans. "I see it more as the strength of Senator Hatch. Pat just backed into a buzz saw."
Regardless of how outsiders see the senator, a solid victory like the 1982 Hatch win over then-Salt Lake Mayor Ted Wilson says Hatch remains well-liked and secure at home, Evans said.