If nothing else, the Big 12 football race has been entirely unpredictable the past few seasons.
Last year, for instance, perennial power Oklahoma drooped to a 6-7 season and 2021 Big 12 title game participants Baylor and Oklahoma State went a combined 13-13, after the Bears and Cowboys were expected to return to the title game, in some circles.
“We still have to have that same mindset, regardless of who we are playing. And then looking at the rest of the schedule, we are going to need some depth. Injuries are a part of the game, but getting guys back and creating some quality depth is going to be key for us.” — BYU coach Kalani Sitake on joining the Big 12
Meanwhile, TCU got off to a surprising 12-0 start before falling to Kansas State in the championship game — the same Kansas State that had gone 4-5 in league play the previous season.
Nobody called that one, or the fact that the Frogs would make it all the way to the College Football Playoff championship game before getting waxed 65-7 by undefeated Georgia.
You get the picture.
Then again, a case could be made that we probably haven’t seen anything yet.
Wait until this year, when Texas and Oklahoma try to go out with a bang before they enter the SEC, and newcomers BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston try to show college football fans throughout the country that they truly belong in a Power Five conference.
Obviously, Big 12 football won’t lack for storylines in 2023, and we haven’t even mentioned possible future additions. Since commissioner Brett Yormark said last July that the league is “open for business,” speculation over whether the now 14-team Big 12 will revert back to 12 teams in 2024, or grow to as many as 16 teams, has been bandied about far and wide. Expansion talk has dominated headlines for the far-flung conference, which now encompasses three time zones and could add a fourth if Yormark has his way.
A quick survey of preseason predictions this summer shows that Texas and Oklahoma are expected to play for the title in Arlington, Texas, in December. Kansas State, TCU and Texas Tech seem to be getting the most attention as probable top-five finishers.
Baylor, Oklahoma State and much-improved Kansas should form the middle tier, perhaps with a couple of the newcomers.
Is BYU in that mix? Most observers don’t believe so. As has been noted countless times in this space, by this author, the Cougars will do well to go 6-6 and make it to a bowl game in their first season in the league.
We will see.
For what it is worth, Yormark said in early June after the Big 12 business meetings wrapped up in West Virginia that all four schools will hit the ground running. He’s not worried about competitiveness, top to bottom.
“I would just say that, having observed where the four schools have been over the last nine months, they have had a two-year runway, effectively, to get ready,” Yormark said. “And they have built infrastructure, they have invested in resources, and I am really pleased where they are right now. … They have ramped up in all the right areas and I am just looking forward to having them join us and be part of this new Big 12.”
The Deseret News will publish team-by-team previews of all 14 Big 12 teams in the coming days, starting with BYU’s first opponent as a Big 12 member — Kansas — and working through the Cougars’ schedule before wrapping up with looks at the four schools not on the slate — Kansas State, Baylor, UCF and Houston — before concluding with the Cougars themselves.
No doubt about it, BYU players, coaches and administrators know what lies ahead, and have been preparing for the move up since Sept. 10, 2021, when the prized invitation officially arrived.
“We understand the sense of urgency (needed),” BYU coach Kalani Sitake said in April. “We know what the schedule looks like. I mean, in years past, it has always been, ‘Get ready for a front-loaded schedule’ and the first game is always (big) and there are a high number of P5s early in the season.
“We still have to have that same mindset, regardless of who we are playing,” he continued. “And then looking at the rest of the schedule, we are going to need some depth. Injuries are a part of the game, but getting guys back and creating some quality depth is going to be key for us.”
Coaches at Houston, Cincinnati and UCF have pretty much said the same thing. It will be fascinating to watch.
“It is not just me, it is everyone that is in the Big 12 right now that is trying to get (to the championship),” Sitake said. “Let’s see who can sacrifice the most and work the hardest and compete so we can see who the winner is going to be.
“I don’t think anybody can choose the winner right now,” he continued. “People try, but they keep getting it wrong. We will see if they are right or wrong this time.”
