For months, scientists have been predicting that El Niño, a global weather pattern that occurs every two to five years due to warmer ocean temperatures, would grow to its strongest presence in decades.
That time might be here.
The National Weather Service announced last week that El Niño has “strengthened further over the past month” and there is a more than 90% chance of a “very strong event” in the Northern Hemisphere this winter.
What’s more, models predict that El Niño will “continue to strengthen through the end of the year,” and there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would “exceed the strength” of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950, the weather service said, the effects of which are likely to last well into next year, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, in a statement released by WMO.
Super El Niño has already triggered many extreme weather events across the globe, including massive hurricanes in the Pacific, heat waves in Europe and America, and dry conditions that have sparked wildfires around the world.
“Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather,” Guterres said. “The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
What effects are expected to accompany Super El Niño?
Possible effects of Super El Niño could include droughts, floods, altered food production, extreme heat, destabilized ocean systems and a greater risk of wildfire.
In the United States, El Niño effects usually create milder winters in the northern part of the country and wetter conditions in the South. According to the World Resources Institute, the southern United States is one of several regions that may experience above-average rainfall and flooding. Other areas at risk of wetter conditions include Ecuador, eastern Africa, parts of Peru and regions in the Middle East and Central Asia.
Conversely, some areas are expected to experience periods of drought caused by El Niño conditions, such as Central America, the Caribbean, northern Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Australia, and the central and northern parts of India and Africa, the World Resources Institute reports.
These conditions are amplified by “a warmer baseline,” the institute explained, adding that the last 11 years have been the warmest on record.
El Niño events tend to develop between April and June but do not reach their maximum strength until the period between October and February, often peaking around Christmastime, according to the Columbia Climate School International Research Institute for Climate and Society. The effects typically last for nine to 12 months, but can persist for up to two years, the institute reports.
Experts note an upside to ‘super’ conditions: Predictability
While the possible effects of Super El Niño appear intimidating, some researchers note an “upside” to Super El Niño: Stronger conditions are easier to forecast with greater accuracy.
Andrew Kruczkiewicz, a meteorologist and a senior staff associate with the Columbia Climate School, said this means there is more opportunity to prepare for the effects of the strong conditions.
“If done at a sufficient scale,” Kruczkiewicz said in an article by the Columbia Climate School, “emergency managers, energy companies, public health officials and the like will have more time and resources to take anticipatory and risk-reducing actions.”
Looking back at another ‘super’ event from recent decades
There have only been three El Niño events classified as “super” or “very strong” since 1980. The largest occurred in 1982 and into 1983 and was called “the strongest and most devastating of the century, perhaps the worst in recorded history.”
The event caused weather-related disasters — including droughts, dust storms, brush fires and floods — on nearly every continent.
Up to 2,000 people are estimated to have died from the events and more than $13 billion in damages were caused to property and livelihoods.
The effects were so large, some scientists even hypothesize that the angular momentum of Earth was shifted and the day lengths stretched by 0.2 milliseconds.
Adverse weather conditions during this event were obvious in Utah, where 1983 is remembered as the year “storms threaten to aggravate flood nightmare,” according to a 1983 Deseret News article.
That year, State Street in Salt Lake City was turned into a river that caused approximately $300 million in damages and at least seven deaths.
No two El Niño events are the same, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but leaders are still urging that measures be put in place to prepare for Super El Niño’s possible consequences.