Want more babies? Find more supportive friends

America’s long birth rate decline continues and a new report from the Institute for Family Studies predicts trouble ahead, noting the U.S. is “now in its third historic period of extended below-replacement-rate fertility.”

“U.S. population growth has abruptly slowed down in recent years, driven in large part by fertility rates collapsing to record lows,” per the report, “The Demographic Dead End: 2026 State of Fertility.” “If fertility rates continue their recent decline, U.S. population will peak around 351 million and begin declining in the 2050s. If fertility rates stabilize, population will peak around 366 million and begin declining in the 2080s.”

In the report, Lyman Stone and Peter Foreshaw Brookes suggest that changing cultural attitudes around friendship and family life could help restore fertility to the 2.4 children on average that Americans say they’d like to have. A 2025 Gallup survey put aspiration even higher, at 2.7. The total fertility rate now is below 1.6, well short of the 2.1 that replaces the population.

Only South Dakota has near-replacement-rate fertility. Current trends suggest the U.S. population will peak in 2054, “decades ahead of forecasts.” If that happens, Stone and Foreshaw Brookes predict that the end of the 21st century could find America in economic and political retreat.

Stone is a senior fellow and director of the institute’s Pronatalism Initiative, while Foreshaw Brookes is a research associate for the initiative.

The West Coast, New England, Illinois and Florida all have very low fertility rates, while the South and Great Plains retain “some vestige of the old American family culture” among those of reproductive age, the report says, summing fertility in the U.S. up with two words: “not good.”

Per the report, peer culture makes a difference, influencing decisions to have or not have children. Perhaps more surprising is that admired celebrities also seem to have a say: “Fans of celebrities who have more kids themselves want to have more children as well.”

The report offers suggestions to reverse the trend to fewer children, including advocating for a “generous baby bonus.” It also calls on ”policymakers and concerned private citizens" to help create a family-friendly culture.

“Research varies on how much financial support can move birth rates, and we estimate that our proposals would increase births by between 300,000 and 900,000 every year,” Foreshaw Brookes told Deseret News by email. “The upper estimate of that would take U.S. fertility rates to only just below replacement. The challenge societies face today is that fertility rates have been falling and the fertility gap — the gap between fertility rates and the number of children people would like to have — has been rising, and these trends have been relentless in the U.S. since 2007."

An interactive fertility database underpins the report, looking at different measures for each state from 1917 to 2025 along with a historical look back at U.S. fertility against the backdrop of America’s 250th birthday. The report is based largely on that database and the 2026 State of Family Culture Survey.

Impact of peers and celebrities

While it’s well-documented that strong faith and regular religious attendance are associated with having more children, these researchers say the impact of having helpful friends has equal or even greater impact on whether people want or have more children. And it’s not that religious people are more prone to have helpful friends.

There’s more than a one-child difference between the 10% of Americans under 30 with the least helpful friends, who put their desired family size at about 1.7 children on average, and the 10% with the most supportive friends, who put their desired family size at about 2.8 children.

“Indeed, passive social influences from peers matter, too: Simply having more friends with kids is associated with desiring more children,” per the report. On the other hand, parent-child relationships and extended family ties had little or no association with how many children someone wanted.

But celebrities? They have their own role in America’s fertility story.

When the survey asked respondents to think of a public figure they admired and why, then collated that with how many children each celebrity was publicly known to have, they found that “each additional child born to an admired public figure predicts higher desired family size for the survey respondent.” Celebrity fandom “is almost as important as original family size,” especially among women.

Put simply, “when celebrities have more kids, their fans want more kids,” per Stone and Foreshaw Brookes.

But there’s a caveat. According to Foreshaw Brookes, “Fans of Elon Musk and NBA YoungBoy, who both famously have had children with multiple women, reported lower desires for having children, suggesting that modeling committed family life might drive higher fertility desires rather than simply having children.”

While it’s hard to say exactly how the math of having kids would work out based on the number of children a favorite celebrity has, Foreshaw Brookes called the notion “less far-fetched than one might imagine, as cultural leaders’ actions have had huge effects on fertility behavior in the recent past.”

He said he was struck by the link between a celebrity’s fertility and fertility desires among their fans. “It’s often been speculated that people will follow celebrity culture even on decisions as personal as having a child, but now we’ve found the numbers consistent with this thesis.”

Looking down the road

Population stability hinges on two things: Births being at replacement rate and immigration. The report notes that “under President Trump, net migration has already fallen to near-zero rates and this is likely to continue through his presidency — and he is unlikely to be the last restrictionist president of the 21st century.“

Plus, the decline in fertility has been seen around the globe, with a few exceptions. So immigration may be losing population-stabilizing power.

The report offers ideas to bolster fertility:

• Create “American Birthday Accounts” that exceed the “Trump Accounts” $1,000 to, for example, $15,000 for each U.S. citizen born starting in 2026. To access it, that baby would have to grow up and become a legal and custodial parent living with their child. Beneficiaries could get half the money then and smaller shares with a second and third children. The researchers say those accounts, well invested, could be a $100,000 baby bonus at first birth. They predict a 20%-40% boost in fertility among the cohort that could collect and claim it would provide the greatest bang for a buck compared to other policies. If the babies with the accounts didn’t have babies, the money would revert to the government.
• Try child caregiver credits. For those with a child younger than 5 at home, let a stay-at-home parent have Social Security credit as if they were working at their income levels, adjusted for inflation. That would prevent penalizing the retirement benefit of a parent who stays home to raise young children.
• End marriage penalties. “In practice, this amounts to suggesting that the U.S. should adopt fully individualized tax and welfare programs.” Per the report, countries that have done so saw sharp increases in fertility. Alternatively, line by line removal of marriage penalties would help.
• Build family housing now to counter the housing crisis. “Home prices have skyrocketed to many multiples of young adult incomes.”
• For policymakers, family-impact budgeting. Lawmakers at all levels, they wrote, need to consider not only a bill’s impact on revenue and spending, but also how it will impact marriage and fertility. “Every bill that receives a cost score should also be scored on how it impacts incentives to marry and have children, giving legislators a constant reminder that their choices have consequences for the physical survival of the nation, not only of its financial accounts.”

As for changing cultural norms to be more kid-friendly, they suggest:

• Enlist celebrity culture to promote American family life.
• Encourage supportive friendship.
• Promote real-life socializing. One way to have more friends with kids is having more friends.