A Utah Democrat will win a congressional election in 2026, the first time since 2018. This new development is fostering old and new deliberations on Democrats, especially in Utah. We explain.
For decades, political scientists and pundits predicted Utah would soon shift politically from the far right toward a centrist purple. A recent advocate for this theory is BYU professor Jacob Rugh. Presidential election results and declining church membership indicate, according to him, that there’s a shift in Utah. Is this really happening?
Cowley: The assertion that Utah is the next Arizona and actively turning purple is wishful thinking by the far left. There aren’t enough column inches to refute all the false claims made, but the most egregious one is trying to correlate Trump’s poor performance in Utah to somehow forecasting that MAGA Republicans are losing favor with voters. MAGA candidates perform extremely well up and down the Beehive State’s ballot and nationwide. What’s funny is I can make the argument that Trump really isn’t all that MAGA. MAGA supporters want a strong economy, affordability and no more foreign wars. Trump is failing on all fronts.
Midterms favor Democrats, but we are nowhere near the circumstances present in 2018 when three initiatives drove moderate and Democratic voters to the ballot box. This election turnout will be defined by sentiment over the economy and congressional races, especially in CD1.
While I still urge caution to my fellow party members not to rest on our laurels, there is no reason to believe Republicans will soon become an endangered species in Utah. Recent threats from progressive groups should be taken seriously. Their successful union signature-gathering effort and an influx of out-of-state money in legislative races signal that liberals are ramping up efforts. I’m not losing sleep over it … yet.
Pignanelli: “I think political science is bad at prediction … we can do a better job of telling you what is happening now.” — Ian Bremmer
Incomplete statistical analysis is hazardous. I now consume much less pizza. But that fact does not suggest I am eating an alternative like avocado toast. (uggh!)
Using presidential election results to determine trends in Utah requires caution, as the Republican nominee’s personality affects outcomes. Statewide races show a consistent pattern (with the exception of the 2022 U.S. Senate race). The claim MAGA is influencing traditional Republicans to cross the ballot in significant numbers is unsubstantiated. Yet.
However, statistics also reveal hidden elements. In the First Congressional District primary, Ben McAdams garnered 29,737 votes. His three opponents, on the extremist left, together received 27,558 votes. That is close. But the real revelation is that the 6,700 ballots requested by Republicans and unaffiliated voters to participate in the primary were mostly cast for McAdams, likely giving him the victory. These numbers indicate a large segment of local Democrats leans toward the extreme end of the political spectrum. Could this be a future barrier in attracting voters disaffected with MAGA? McAdams offers a road map for utilizing this potential advantage.
Major turmoil is unfolding within national and local parties as they adjust their policy directions. But the answers to where and for how long will require time.
Although they have history, the economy and the Iran war providing tail winds into the midterm elections, the National Democratic Party is broke. Traditional donors are snubbing it, while others are focusing on individual candidates. What does this mean, and could it impact Utah elections?
Cowley: It’s wild to think the same party that significantly outraised Trump in favor of Kamala Harris is now somehow cash-poor. Political parties are like businesses. Investors, or donors, want to see a return on their investment. Democrats lack a strong executive. They don’t have a business plan to break into new markets like Utah. Consumers, or voters, just aren’t buying what they’re selling.
Democrats remain rudderless. Refrains of “not Trump” are not enough to win elections. They need to define what they are “for,” not just what they are “against.” Until Democrats both locally and nationally find their North Star, political sharks will remain reluctant to invest.
Pignanelli: If polling continues to show the Democrats could retake the House, there will be an infusion of cash. But donors’ reluctance indicates nervousness in the business community about potential ideological activities if a change occurs. This trend, if continued, could be a major issue for party realignment and the 2028 elections.
What’s the realistic path for Democrats to make gains in Utah?
Cowley: Democrats need to offer a meaningful alternative to the status quo. It is hard to find fault in current leadership when Utah continually racks up accolades such as “best state in the nation” year after year.
The working class, who just can’t seem to get ahead, was promised a bill of goods from Trump that he has not delivered. State legislators cannot meaningfully impact rising gas and egg prices, but if Democrats can somehow capitalize on affordability issues, they may move the needle.
Pignanelli: Utah Democrats were in similar positions in the past, and the formula remains the same. They need to establish a significant distance from extreme national activists while offering common-sense messaging to the basic concerns of voters.