Where did all the criminals go?
And, perhaps more importantly, did you notice they were missing?
Jeff Asher, a crime statistics guru who co-founded the data firm AH Datalytics, told the National Council of State Legislatures that people tend to judge the crime rate by anecdotal evidence — what a neighbor told them happened to an acquaintance or something they heard happened nearby. Worse, they listen to politicians or judge that the political party they oppose has made a practice of either coddling criminals or abusing them.
And official statistics lag far behind current reality, as if many people paid attention to official statistics, anyway.
“You could be two or three years into a crime wave ending or crime falling historically like it is now, and people are just starting to catch up,” he said.
And yes, crime is falling at a historic rate. At least, it is according to incomplete statistics. And no, this trend can’t be attributed to any one political party.
Are Americans paying attention? Are police departments learning from each other?
The numbers
The FBI released 2025 statistics about a month ago. Here’s a sampling:
- Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell year over year by an estimated 18.1%
- Rape declined 7.6%
- Aggravated assault fell 7.2%
- Robbery was down 18.5%
The news isn’t all good. The Council on Criminal Justice reports that drug crimes are up by 12%, which is not a small matter. Also, domestic violence rose by 8%, and sexual assaults were up by 3%.
So, you might want to still lock your doors at night.
Experts are quick to note that these statistics are not complete. The numbers tend to be adjusted upward as more information is available. But Asher notes more than 96% of Americans were covered by an agency that reported to the FBI for the 2025 report.
Why are so many crimes down? That’s a question local governments should be asking, and they should insist on objective data. Crime is down in cities run by Republicans and Democrats. After a spike during the pandemic, cities and states tried a lot of things, and some of them obviously worked.
Or maybe the nation is simply getting older. Crimes tend to be perpetrated by younger people.
Whatever the reason, many of you probably haven’t been this safe from murder in your lifetimes.
Crime rates not seen in decades
The FBI said the ’25 murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 population was tied with 1955 and ’56 for the lowest ever. The decline in violent crime from ’24 to ’25 was the steepest since 1936, the year the FBI started reporting its crime statistic estimates; back when Al Capone roamed the land and the Depression meant hard times for just about everyone.
Asher has been collecting information on 2026, and he writes that the news keeps getting better. He said on a recent blog that this year’s murder rate “will likely be incredibly low (at least compared to U.S. recorded history).” About 10,000 fewer people will be killed than in the years 2020 to ’22.
You want more good news? The academic journal Nature Human Behaviour published a study last month showing racial disparities in U.S. prisons fell from 2000 to 2019. Titled “Why America’s Prisons Are Shrinking and Racial Gaps Are Closing,” the paper found a trend of fewer Black prisoners in relation to white ones.
When it comes to violent and property crimes, the authors (Jason Robey of the University of Iowa and Michael Light of the University of Wisconsin) said this positive trend “can be attributed almost exclusively to reductions in recorded crime rates, particularly to declines in violence among Black Americans.”
Regarding drug crimes, the trend appeared to be due to a reduced likelihood of being arrested and imprisoned. “For Black individuals arrested for drug-related offences, the probability of imprisonment was cut in half since 2000,” the study said.
Asher is realistic about the numbers. They aren’t perfect.
“Still,” he wrote, “even with all of that uncertainty … while it’s not fully clear that 2025 will 100% be the lowest murder rate ever recorded in the U.S., it is decently clear that the 2026 murder rate will be by far the lowest ever recorded.”
No, don’t prop your front door open at night to air out the house while you sleep. The total murders in 2025 still were estimated to be 14,085. But you certainly can sleep a little easier behind locked doors.