An earlier version of this article was published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here. To submit a question to next week’s Friday Mailbag, email onthetrail@deseretnews.com.
Good morning, friends. Between Super Tuesday and the State of the Union, it was a week of late nights. I wish a restful weekend for all. (Daylight saving time has other plans.)
3 things to know
- Trump romped on Super Tuesday, winning every state but Vermont. I attended a caucus here in Utah, which was plagued by technical glitches and poor organization. Nikki Haley promptly ended her campaign Wednesday morning, effectively securing the GOP nomination for Trump. Read more here.
- Biden delivered a fiery and political State of the Union address on Thursday night, as he tried to tamp down concerns about his age and fitness for office. More here.
- Republicans want Ron DeSantis as VP, and Democrats want Kamala Harris or Michelle Obama as their nominee if Joe Biden can’t run. That’s according to our new Deseret/HarrisX polls of voters nationally. More here.
The Big Idea
Up for grabs: Haley voters
When Nikki Haley suspended her campaign this week, she didn’t endorse Trump. Instead, she challenged him. From her speech:
It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him, and I hope he does that. At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people. This is now his time for choosing.
Trump, Haley posits, needs to “earn” the support of her voters — many of whom, as I’ve reported, backed her simply because she wasn’t Trump. Trump took only a passive interest in the opportunity; moments before her speech, he bragged on Truth Social about Haley getting “TROUNCED ... in record setting fashion,” and accused her voters of being “Radical Left Democrats.” If they come around, though, they could be forgiven: “(I) would further like to invite all of the Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our Nation.”
President Joe Biden — Trump’s presumptive opponent in the November election — took a different tack. In a statement Wednesday, Biden complimented Haley. “It takes a lot of courage to run for president — that’s especially true in today’s Republican Party, where so few dare to speak the truth about Donald Trump,” Biden said.
“Donald Trump made it clear he doesn’t want Nikki Haley’s supporters. I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign,” Biden added. He acknowledged there “is a lot we won’t agree on,” but said they could find “common ground” on “fundamental issues” like preserving democracy, standing for the rule of law and protecting the U.S.’ allies.
The question, now, is whether Haley’s supporters turn to Biden or Trump. Exit polling in early open or semi-open primaries — like New Hampshire and South Carolina — suggested that a decent amount of her supporters were Democrats, but nowhere near “almost 50%,” as Trump suggested. That leaves millions of disgruntled Republicans and independents across the country up for grabs by Biden and Trump (or other candidates).
At least one group is already working to win them over. Shortly before the South Carolina primary, I met Robert Schwartz, co-founder of the political action group Primary Pivot. He worked in early primary states to convince Democrats to skip their party’s primary and instead vote in the Republican primary for Haley. (Read more about his efforts here.)
I ran into Schwartz again in Virginia, just days before Super Tuesday, at a Haley rally. “We’d love for Haley to win the nomination, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely,” he admitted to me. As such, his team had already transitioned to a new strategy: hunker down in swing states and convince the Haley voters there to back Biden. He’d already sent staffers to North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan; between the three of them, there were 1 million Haley voters, he said.
This week, Primary Pivot rebranded as Haley Voters For Biden. Schwartz acknowledges that it’s a different message now — instead of convincing Democrats to vote for a Republican, they’re talking Republicans into supporting a Democrat — but Schwartz sees parallels. “Our message to Democrats has been, look, you may disagree on abortion and climate change, but she’s better than Trump,” Schwartz said. “Now, the pitch to Republicans is, you might disagree with Biden on abortion and climate change, but if you agree with choosing democracy over dictatorship, it’s an easy choice.”
On domestic policy, Haley supporters would likely agree with Trump much more than with Biden. But Haley staked her campaign on attacking Trump’s foreign policy and his character, and many of her voters may see those as non-negotiables.
Biden and Trump have eight months to build their coalitions. Expect “Haley voters” to be a key one.
Weekend reads
Biden voters, buyer’s remorse: In 2020, Biden ran as a “transition candidate,” vowing to be a “bridge” to the next generation of Democratoc leadership. To many, it was assumed he would serve four years then pass the baton. But now — out of stubbornness or necessity — Biden is fighting on, looking to serve until 2029. Some voters are perturbed by that and frightened by the potential ramifications. It’s Not Just That Biden Is Old (Mark Leibovich, The Atlantic)
Here come the Haley autopsies: Nikki Haley’s campaign was as consistent as they come, from her memorized stump speech to her schedule. But she was erratic — even “schizophrenic,” one adviser said — about how and when to criticize Trump. It ended up being the final nail in the coffin. Haley ran a near perfect race. She just couldn’t figure out Trump. (Natalie Allison, Politico)
iCampaigns: In 2016, Donald Trump became the first presidential candidate to latch onto online networks en route to victory — social media, messaging groups, digital forums. Could the internet be the front line in 2024? The New Rules of Online Campaigning (Sasha Issenberg, The Wall Street Journal)
Friday mailbag
This week’s question comes from Malcom R., in response to our recent polling that shows Republicans want Ron DeSantis as Trump’s running mate:
If I understand the 12th Amendment correctly, if Trump and DeSantis were on the same ticket, electors in Florida (i.e. the Electoral College) would be prohibited from voting for both men. In a close election that could mean either the president or vice president wouldn’t get a majority, and one or the other would have to go to the House of Representatives or the Senate for resolution. Correct?
A fantastic question. The 12th Amendment says that each state’s electors will “vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves.” Does that mean Trump will be kept from winning Florida’s electoral votes, if he chooses DeSantis or Rep. Byron Donalds, two people on his VP shortlist?
I called Dr. James C. Phillips, the Constitutional Government Initiative director and an associate professor at BYU’s Wheatley Institute, for insight. “How this has generally been interpreted is you cannot have the president and the vice president be from the same state,” he told me. “It’s almost never been an issue.” The exception was 2000, when George W. Bush selected Dick Cheney as his running mate. Cheney promptly changed his primary residence from Texas to Wyoming to avoid a legal conflict.
Two lawsuits followed. One, taken up by a federal court in Texas, dismissed the case for lack of standing, but not before addressing the issue in question: What does “inhabitant” mean in the 12th Amendment? The court ruled that an inhabitant “has a physical presence within that state and intends that it be his place of habitation” — a definition, Phillips noted, that may not be true to the Founders’ intention. “I’m not sure that’s the right reading of the word ‘inhabitant,’” Phillips said. “That’s a later legal development, this concept of domicile and this physical presence and intent to remain.” But because Cheney moved back to Wyoming, there was no legal repercussion. Bush went on to win that election, which was eventually decided by the Supreme Court.
So, what happens if Trump picks DeSantis or Donalds? “It is technically a problem,” Phillips said. “It’s not that they can’t run — he could certainly pick one of those gentleman as his VP — but it’s not clear the electoral votes could be properly counted.”
A likely scenario is that Trump’s pick for VP promptly moves out of Florida and maintains residence there, or Trump moves to his New York or New Jersey residences. Alternately, Trump wins by such a margin that Florida’s electoral votes make no difference.
It is possible, though, that the election is so tight that Florida could decide it. Even after Trump and/or his VP pick move out of Florida, it could face legal challenges. Courts could rule, or they could adhere to the political question doctrine and allow Congress to decide.
Either way, the question at hand is how they define “inhabitant.” Is it defined like that 2000 case — physical presence and intent to stay? Or is it something more primitive, akin to “place of birth” or hometown?
Trump could avoid this all by selecting a running mate that isn’t from Florida or by winning in November by such a margin that Florida’s electoral votes are of no consequence. But neither are guaranteed.
See you on the trail.
Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.