This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here.
Hello, friends. Election Day is six weeks from today.
3 things to know
- The Mark Robinson controversy continues: days after the North Carolina gubernatorial nominee’s problematic online activities leaked, the Republican’s campaign staff has reportedly dwindled to three individuals. On Saturday, Trump campaigned in North Carolina, and he never mentioned Robinson. Trump’s supporters were unfazed, though: they told me Robinson’s comments, like calling himself a “Black Nazi,” were “taken out of context” or “propaganda.” Read more here.
- A last-minute Electoral College change could spell trouble for Kamala Harris: in Nebraska, the Republican governor wants to turn the state into a winner-takes-all model, moving away from its longstanding practice of assigning its five electoral votes in part by congressional district. The Omaha district is winnable for Democrats, and may be a necessary get for Harris to win the White House. Read more here.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson averted a government shutdown by announcing plans to support a three-month continuing resolution, funding the government through the end of the year. The move broke with Trump’s wishes, who was pushing for the inclusion of the SAVE Act, which would bar noncitizens from voting in federal elections. Read more here.
The big idea
Mitt Romney’s Trump problem
Mitt Romney, just three months from exiting the U.S. Senate, is maintaining a low profile. The final Republican Party nominee before Trump, Romney has said little about the upcoming election, aside from noting he won’t support Trump. After being a key dealmaker in the biggest bipartisan legislative wins in recent years, the rest of Romney’s term will be stuck in a lame-duck Congress. He might be, as he told McKay Coppins recently, a bit “trunky.”
That’s jargon, used by Latter-day Saint missionaries, for being ready to pack up and leave. And Romney has a lot to leave for: at 77, Romney has yet to enjoy a quiet retirement, and he can now be full-time grandpa to his 25 grandchildren.
But stepping out of the limelight is not just appealing — he believes it may be necessary. Six weeks from Election Day, there is a coin-flip possibility that Trump will be the next U.S. president. Trump, for months, has sworn “retribution” for his political opponents: he has promised to “go after” President Joe Biden and those involved in his criminal trials; to give “long term prison sentences” to those who allegedly “cheated” in the 2020 election; and to indict U.S. House members who investigated January 6.
At other times, Trump has said his retribution will come through “success.” But that is little comfort to Romney. There are few Republicans more despised by Trump than Romney: If Trump wins, Romney believes he would top an enemy list; if Trump wins, Romney has privately told friends, he might have to move overseas.
That’s according to the new afterword to Coppins’ biography, “Romney: A Reckoning,” out today — though a Romney spokesperson told Coppins that the senator “was not serious” about the possibility of moving overseas. A year ago, the bestselling biography debuted at No. 3 on The New York Times bestsellers list; the new paperback features an additional interview with Romney, where Coppins — months after the book’s publication — revisits some of its major themes with the senator. (I worked as the lead researcher on the book.)
A major subject? What Romney does next, post-retirement. Several universities, Romney said, have invited him to teach, and Romney has considered launching a cross-country lecture tour. He’s thought about wrangling together the myriad think tanks and nonprofit groups working to reform the primary system and depolarize the political environment. What about a position in a hypothetical Harris administration? There were rumors about Joe Biden, before he dropped out, expressing openness to giving Romney a diplomatic post; Romney, for his part, acknowledged such a position would likely require him to endorse Biden, which he wasn’t quite willing to do. “Biden’s policies drive me crazy,” he told Coppins.
But more frightening, to Romney, than four more years of Democratic rule in the White House is the possibility of Trump returning. When Coppins asked what a second Trump term would mean for Romney, the senator hesitated. Coppins writes:
“I don’t know the answer to that,” Romney said. If Trump tried to sic the Justice Department on him, Romney told me, “The good news is I haven’t had an affair with anybody, I don’t have any classified documents, I can’t imagine something I’ve done that would justify an investigation, let alone an indictment.”
What about his sons? Might they be targeted?
“I mean, hopefully they’ve all crossed their t’s and dotted their i’s,” Romney replied, straining to sound casual. “But it’s hard for me to imagine that President Trump would take the time to go out and see if (he) can find something on members of my family.”
“You might need to expand your imagination,” I suggested.
Romney grew irritated. “Yeah, but I’ve got 25 grandkids!” he said, throwing up his hands. “How am I going to protect 25 grandkids, two great-grandkids? I’ve got five sons, five daughters-in-law— it’s like, we’re a big group.” This was clearly a problem to which he’d given serious thought, and realized there was no solution. In the weeks after January 6, he’d spent thousands of dollars a day to protect his family from red-capped vigilantes. But how do you hide a family of 40 from a president hell-bent on revenge?
Realizing I’d hit a nerve, I tried to steer the conversation toward safer ground. It was possible, of course, that Trump’s “retribution” rhetoric was all bluster. But Romney didn’t seem comforted.
“I think he has shown by his prior actions that you can take him at his word,” he told me, his voice suddenly subdued. “So, I would take him at his word.”
Poll pulse
- The latest New York Times/Siena College poll is great news for Trump along the Sun Belt: in North Carolina, he leads by two points; in Georgia and Arizona, he’s now up by four and five, respectively. He seems to be bolstered by a growing sense of isolationism among the electorate: in those three swing states, a majority of voters say the U.S. “should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home.”
- Trust in the Secret Service is plummeting this year, according to Gallup’s latest polling: The percentage of U.S. adults who rate the Secret Service’s performance as “excellent” or “good” is at 32%, down from 55% last year. One bright spot? The U.S. Postal Service is the highest-rated government agency in the survey, ahead of a presidential election where millions of mail ballots will be cast.
What I’m reading
We’re a week away from the lone VP debate of the election. Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz will face off at CBS’ studios in New York City next Tuesday. Walz brought in Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to play the role of Vance in mock debates, The Washington Post reported; meanwhile, the Vance team roped in Rep. Tom Emmer to play his fellow Minnesotan Walz, The New York Times reported.
This profile of Mike Davis, a possible attorney general in the next Trump administration, is worth reading. Davis is a lawyer and ex-Senate aide, and he’s Donald Trump Jr.’s top pick to be his father’s AG. But he’s also an outspoken proponent for putting migrant children in “cages” and journalists in “gulags.” What is serious, and what is — as Davis puts it — “trolling”? And even if Davis won’t stand behind all his words, will his followers? Trump’s Chief Legal Defender Vows a ‘Reign of Terror’ — Or Is It All an Act? (Adam Wren, Politico)
In the Nevada Senate race, both candidates are trying to portray their opponent as carbon-copies of their party’s presidential candidate. But Sen. Jacky Rosen, the Democratic incumbent, has largely dodged the characterization, consistently polling ahead of Harris in the state. Harris-Rosen? Brown-Trump? Do the Nevada Senate candidates mirror presidential hopefuls? (Gabby Birenbaum, The Nevada Independent)
See you on the trail.
Editor’s note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.