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As much work as Congress does during the year, every two-year period is basically an audition for lawmakers seeking reelection.
House members are elected every two years, so every move they make can be used for or against them. Senators have it a little easier. Their terms are six years, so they have more time to get used to the position, and a politically risky decision in your first or second year won’t matter as much when you’re running for reelection.
With the midterms less than three months away, every legislative decision made by these lawmakers counts. And there are certainly some issues that matter more to their constituents than others.
For this week’s newsletter, I wanted to break down what are shaping up to be the biggest issues for the 2026 midterms.
The top issue, according to polls reported by different outlets, is probably the most obvious one: the economy and affordability. This is usually a top issue for voters, and that’s no different this year.
A recent Pew Research survey showed the top three issues for voters this election cycle all have to do with how expensive life is: 29% said the net economy was their top issue, followed by 15% who said the cost of living/affordability, and then 7% who said the economy in general.
In the past, Republicans have been able to use the economy as their best campaign issue and President Donald Trump has frequently touted that as his strongest policy platform. But Pew’s polling shows that Americans are almost evenly split when asked who they most agree with on economic policies.
About 37% said Democrats while 36% said Republicans, according to the poll. That means neither party, at least right now, has an advantage on it — and it could be the make-or-break issue for them.
But what you’ll notice from Democrats: They’ll be hammering Republicans on the economy during this campaign period. If you look at their campaign ads or their social media posts, they are blaming Trump for the high cost of living and using that for their messaging.
Speaking of: A big issue in this election cycle will also be Trump himself. As I’ve reported before, the midterm elections largely act like a referendum on the sitting president — and history shows the party controlling the White House is likely to lose their House majority halfway through the president’s term.
Democrats are banking on that, and they’re leaning on Trump’s low approval ratings as evidence they could finally win back one of the chambers of Congress. A majority of voters say that Trump is definitely a factor when deciding who to cast their votes for this cycle, and his current approval ratings sit at just 34%, according to Pew.
So what will Republicans do to hit back? They’re using some of Democrats’ own candidates against them. I’ve reported before on the rise of self-described democratic socialists and progressives who are ousting incumbents who identify more as establishment Democrats.
And Republicans want voters to be aware of them. Just look at House Speaker Mike Johnson’s messaging: “Republicans are for COMMON SENSE. Democrats are proving they are for COMMUNISM, electing Mini-Mamdanis who want to trample American greatness with open borders, insane taxes, and defunding law enforcement.”
Republicans’ main tactic right now is to frame their Democratic opponents as proponents of communism and socialism that could “destroy America.”
Another big factor in this midterm cycle will likely be the war in Iran. When the U.S. first launched attacks in Iran in February, Trump promised it would be a quick military mission. Fast-forward almost six months, and there’s no end in sight.
Foreign policy was listed as one of the top issues heading into the midterms, according to Pew. And other polling like this one from Quinnipiac shows 6 in 10 voters oppose U.S. military action in Iran.
If the war remains at an uncertain stage come November, it could be a liability for Republicans.
Of course, there is still time for these issues to either subside — or new issues could come into the fray. Voters are often motivated by what’s bothering them in the moment, so what matters now could change by the time we get to Election Day.
We’ll come back to this thread as we get closer.
Stories Driving the Week
- Political gamble: Prediction markets aren’t just a discussion of political races, they appear to actually be impacting the results, my colleague Emily Walker reports. The biggest prediction market businesses are donating millions to political campaigns to influence the outcomes of races, and voters themselves may be swayed simply by looking at the prediction odds posted online.
- Is ‘woke’ asleep? Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declared that ‘Woke 1’ was crazy. But have Democrats really moved on from those political stances? Eva Terry does a deep dive.
- College sports bill: Progress on the long-stalled Protect College Sports Act, which would establish federal regulations for name, image and likeness deals for student-athletes, sputtered out last week. Among other concerns, some lawmakers raised objections that the bill could create legal loopholes in states that have laws restricting transgender athletes from participating in women’s sports.
Recess Recs: Congressional Yea or Nay
Welcome to Recess Recs, the pop culture finds that are keeping me entertained while Congress is away. But to keep up with the On The Hill vibe, my recommendations will of course have political ties.
This week I have discovered a new game from my fellow reporter friends on X: Congressional Yea or Nay.
The concept is pretty easy: Five senators, three bills, 15 votes.
Basically, the game generates a list of five senators from a point in history. Usually, there’s a theme — this week, there was a day dedicated to votes from the post-9/11 era, another day dedicated to the year the Senate focused on guns and immigration.
You get a brief description of the senator that acts as a hint. For example, this is what they had listed for former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin in 2013: “A gun-owning, coal-country Democrat from a state Obama just lost by 27 points. He holds an NRA ‘A’ rating and protects his centrist brand fiercely — but Sandy Hook shook him.”
Then, the game will give a short rundown of a bill that got a vote that year. And you guess how each of the five senators voted on the bill.
If you’re a political junkie, the game is super fun. If this doesn’t sound like it’s for you, it may surprise you. If nothing else, it’s a fun way to test your deductive reasoning skills, and also acts like a mini history lesson.
Depending on your score, you are given a rank that would mean something on Capitol Hill (and nothing for your social life.) I got committee chair three times this week, which means I got an 11/15 score, and then I got majority whip once, with a 14/15 score.
Anything you’re enjoying during this recess? Let me know if you have any recommendations for books, TV shows, games, etc. Hit me up here!
Quick Hits
From the Hill: Mike Lee wants to close a border loophole he says incentivizes child trafficking. … Democratic senator brings shadow primary for president to Utah. … The Senate has left town — with these key issues unresolved.
From the White House: Karoline Leavitt leaving White House 3 months after having second child. … Utah teen named winner in Trump’s Patriot Games, receives six-figure prize. … Trump signs order changing childhood vaccine recommendations.
From the courts: DOJ says decade-long marriage fraud scheme generated tens of millions. ... Appeals court rules Trump needs Congress’ approval for White House ballroom.