WASHINGTON — House Republican leadership has been working with historically slim margins, giving them virtually no room for error on some of the biggest pieces of legislation so far this year.
But soon, the party will have a bit more breathing room as they work to advance key tenets of President Donald Trump’s agenda.
There are currently four vacancies in the House evenly split between parties. Two Republican seats are open due to the resignations of Florida Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz, the latter of whom stepped down to join the Trump administration.
Two Democratic seats have also been vacated due to the deaths of former Reps. Raul Grijalva of Arizona and Sylvester Turner of Texas, both of whom died earlier this month.
Those vacancies leave the House at a 218-213 breakdown, meaning Republicans can only afford to lose two party members on any given vote if all members are present and all Democrats oppose.
Florida is scheduled to hold its special elections to replace Gaetz and Waltz on April 1, meaning those numbers could shift in the coming weeks and give GOP leadership a sigh of relief.
Both seats are considered safely Republican, which would bring the House breakdown to 220-213 — meaning Republicans could lose three Republicans before risk of failure.
However, it’s not clear how long that margin will last.
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-New York, is set to resign to join the Trump administration after she is confirmed by the Senate as the new ambassador to the United Nations. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee advanced Stefanik’s confirmation in late January, but the New York Republican has been forced to wait it out while Republicans grappled with only a one-seat majority over the last several months.
Now with that margin slightly expanding, the Senate could move immediately to confirm Stefanik — bringing Republicans in the House back to a two-seat margin.
The Senate has not scheduled a date for Stefanik’s confirmation, but Axios reported this week it could be the same week as the Florida special elections.
Once Stefanik resigns, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has 10 days to schedule a date for the special election to replace her. That election won’t take place until about 70-80 days after the proclamation, meaning it could be months before her seat is filled. And some reports indicate the Democratic governor may be inclined to slow-walk that process.
Meanwhile, the Democratic seat formerly held by Grijalva won’t be filled until late September. And Turner’s seat in the red state of Texas may also be slow-walked by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. The governor has not yet announced when he will schedule that special election, but it could similarly be months before Democrats get to fill the seat again.
All those special election dates hold major implications for Republicans, who will be plowing ahead with plans to pass Trump’s massive reconciliation package chock full of spending related to taxes, energy and border security.
House Republicans will need near-unanimity to get the package across the finish line without any Democratic support, so those margins will be crucial — as well as a spot-on headcount for upcoming votes.