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Hello, friends. Happy Mother’s Day weekend.
Quite a week up here on Capitol Hill as lawmakers were back at home in their districts, with some either campaigning or others meeting with constituents. Some members of the Utah delegation traveled far and wide, including Sen. Mike Lee who participated in a congressional trip to China to meet with government officials as well as tech companies.
Primary season is also heating up in several states — and all eyes are on President Donald Trump for a few tight races he has yet to weigh in on. More on that below.
— Cami Mondeaux
The Big Idea: The power of Trump’s endorsement
This week we saw a major win for President Donald Trump in the state of Indiana. At least five state senators up for reelection lost their primary races on Tuesday after crossing the president by voting against a new congressional map that Trump wanted to add two GOP seats for the midterm elections.
When they voted that down, Trump decided to retaliate — and in the process, reminded Republicans just how strong his endorsement power can be. Will that be the case for all midterm races this year?
I looked into it.
“A Trump endorsement is the single most powerful endorsement in Republican politics. I mean, there is no endorsement that even comes close,” Steven Hilding, vice president of Revolutionizing Microtargeted Campaigns, a campaign consulting group, told me. “It’s not quite an end-all-be-all in a Republican primary, but for the most part, it is.”
Let’s look at the numbers so far, and what we are still waiting on to determine whether Trump’s endorsement is as politically potent as Republicans want to believe.
So far in the midterm cycle, Trump has a 100% success rate for the congressional primaries he has endorsed in. (There’s a caveat coming.) That’s 71 House candidates and four in their Senate primaries.
That’s a good start to the election year, although important to note the percentage is likely to go down once we hit the general election because of races Trump endorsed candidates in but the Democrat is projected to win or manages to oust a GOP incumbent.
If history is any indication, Trump has a pretty good endorsement record: For the 2018 midterm elections during his first term, he had a 95% success rate for primary elections and a 59% success rate in that year’s general election, according to Ballotpedia.
For the 2022 midterms, it was 93% for primaries and 83% for the general.
But remember there was a caveat coming? Something to watch are these really competitive races that Trump hasn’t weighed in on.
“I would say, this cycle, what has struck me about the endorsements is that they’ve all been relatively cautious,” Erin Covey, who leads coverage of the House for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told me in an interview. “He has not really played in primaries where there isn’t a clear front-runner, or someone who clearly is in a position to be the front-runner.”
Now, the reason why Trump hasn’t weighed in is up for debate. For Covey, she says it likely has to do with the fact that Trump simply likes to be right.
“I do think in races that are closer, he tends to be a little bit more cautious, because he doesn’t want to get behind a loser,” she told me. “That is clearly a priority for him.”
For example, Trump still hasn’t weighed in on the Texas Senate Republican primary, which will have its runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. It’s a tight race and one in which Trump has so far not offered his endorsement.
While Cornyn has the support of those in the National Republican Senatorial Committee and other top party officials, Paxton is a close ally of Trump’s — which likely makes it harder to choose.
But Hilding gave me another theory as to why the president is keeping his nose out of it: He doesn’t want to divide his base.
“It’s more so, in my opinion, that he doesn’t want to split his supporters,” he told me. “The president definitely likes winners, but I also think that he likes keeping his base of support happy.”
Although Trump is off to a good start, it may be too early to tell just how strong his endorsement still is. Those will be put to the test as more of these competitive primaries — such as Trump’s mission to oust Rep. Thomas Massie, who has quickly become a thorn in his side, or the Louisiana Senate race where Trump wants to oust incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy — and the general election in November.
“I think long story short, it’s too soon to tell whether or not his endorsement has the power or his endorsement has waned yet this cycle, because we haven’t had any real tests of it,” Covey told me.
— Cami Mondeaux
Stories Driving the Week
- Ballroom-ing on a budget: Senate Republicans released the text of their multibillion-dollar federal immigration package, and included is $1 billion for the Secret Service, part of which is to be used for “security adjustments and upgrades” related to the ongoing construction of the White House ballroom.
- Redistricting frenzy: At least two more states are getting involved in the race to redraw their congressional boundaries, and others could be close behind after a landmark Supreme Court decision last week striking down Louisiana’s map.
- Filibuster frustration: President Donald Trump expressed disappointment in some Republican lawmakers over their hesitance to change or even eliminate the filibuster rule in the Senate, noting there are some in his own party he “can’t stand.”
White House makes clear what ballroom money can be used for
Senate Republicans unveiled their latest spending package this week to fund federal immigration enforcement for the next three years without needing Democratic support. I covered that here.
Tucked into that package is a $1 billion supplement for the Secret Service, with language in the package saying it could go toward the East Wing Modernization Project — which is the ongoing construction of the White House ballroom to establish a secure event space. The package specifically says the spending can only be used for security measures, likely in response to the assassination attempt targeting President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner almost two weeks ago.
But it raised eyebrows among some who questioned if this amounted to taxpayer money being used to construct Trump’s ballroom, a project several already object to.
Administration officials appear to be tamping down those concerns after sending a letter to top congressional leaders this week outlining exactly what the money can be used for: security measures to secure the White House complex, the ballroom included.
In that letter, a copy of which I obtained, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin made the case for the $1 billion price tag, which will likely be heavily debated over the next few weeks.
The letter listed five security upgrades that would be paid for with the reconciliation package, such as “above and below ground requirements” for security, training for Secret Service agents, and increased measures for events that require “significant planning, specialized training, advanced screening technologies, perimeter, and security assets.”
The letter was sent to both House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., as well as the two Judiciary Committee chairmen in the House and Senate.
— Cami Mondeaux
Quick Hits
From the Hill: Sen. Mark Kelly appears likely to defeat Pentagon in battle over ‘illegal orders’ video. … Speaker Johnson: Our rights come from God, not from the government. … Sen. John Curtis shares personal climate change ‘journey.’
From the White House: Rubio, Pope Leo discuss religious freedom amid U.S.-Vatican tensions. … Kash Patel says FBI illegally spied on Trump campaign. … Utah’s ‘MAHA’ turn gets a warm White House welcome.
From the courts: Federal judge apologizes to man accused of trying to kill Trump over jail conditions. … Supreme Court pause keeps abortion pill access by mail intact — for now. … How the midterms will be different thanks to Supreme Court map decision.
What’s next
The Senate is back in on Monday. The House will be back Tuesday. Some top items on the agenda include the bipartisan housing package, extending government surveillance powers, and whether or not to return to Sen. Mike Lee’s SAVE America Act.
As always, feel free to reach out to me by email with story ideas or questions you have for lawmakers. And follow me on X for breaking news and timely developments from the Hill.