It’s time once again to return to our favorite late-November pastime: trying to make sense of the college football polls, Vol. 400,555.
Today’s topic: Is BYU getting hosed in the College Football Playoff rankings?
BYU is 9-0 and ranked No. 8 in the Associated Press and Coaches polls, but the CFP selection committee pegged the Cougars — the winningest team in the country — no better than No. 14. That means they’re likely two spots short of qualifying for one of the New Year’s Six bowls, and it is unlikely the Cougars can overcome that deficit.
Time is running out, unless athletic director Tom Holmoe can work some more magic. The Cougars have one game remaining on their schedule — against San Diego State, which is 3-2 and ranked 83rd in the Sagarin computer rankings. That won’t help matters.
“Certainly the schedule (BYU’s), compared to the teams around them, came into play,” said Gary Barta, the chairman of the CFP selection committee.
In other words, BYU’s schedule is considered too weak to merit a higher ranking, repeating a criticism that has dogged the Cougars this season and in every season they encroached on the top 10 (think 1984).
No one can argue that point. BYU ranks 108th in strength of schedule — the lowest of any team in the top 20 and 24 places lower than any team in the top 19.
But in this weird COVID-19 season, certain considerations should be made by the selection committee, which is exactly what the committee did for many other teams, just not BYU.
Big Ten teams have played far fewer games than the Cougars — fourth-ranked Ohio State four games, eighth-ranked Northwestern five games, 12th-ranked Indiana five games. Pac-12 teams have played even fewer games — Oregon and USC, 15th and 18th, respectively — have played only three games, which is hardly enough to judge their merits. Yet the committee, giving obvious consideration for the odd circumstances of this season, had no qualms about placing them where it did in the rankings.
While BYU was out on the field playing nine games, those teams were watching on TV. That should count for something.
Cincinnati, 8-0, is ranked seventh in the CFP ratings — and the Bearcats’ strength of schedule is 84th.
Georgia has played enough games (seven), but the Bulldogs have lost two games and have just one win over a team with a winning record. For this, the Bulldogs rank ninth.
Continuing past the coveted top-12 rankings, Coastal Carolina and Marshall rank 20th and 21st in the CFP ratings despite having strength-of-schedule rankings of 107th and 126th, respectively.
It’s a mess. There’s little consistency in the ratings. This was to be expected given the challenges of COVID and the range of starting dates for each conference, which ranged from early September to early November. The unusual nature of the season should be considered, but it wasn’t where BYU was concerned.
The Cougars originally had a very strong schedule, with two teams from the Big Ten, three teams from the Pac-12 and one team from the Southeastern Conference, but all of those teams, plus Utah State, canceled their games because of COVID concerns.
Holmoe rebuilt the schedule with the best teams he could convince to play the Cougars. He did well to rebuild a 10-game schedule so quickly, especially given the number of teams that had declared they would play only conference games. As an independent, BYU couldn’t fall back on conference games, so, under the circumstances, Holmoe’s schedule was remarkable.
The Cougars did everything they could do to prove themselves against the teams that agreed to play them. Their average margin of victory is 45-14. Zach Wilson has thrown 26 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The offense ranks fifth nationally in scoring (45.2 points per game) and third in yards per play (7.87). The defense ranks eighth in scoring defense (13.9).
The Cougars have won all but one game by a landslide — scores: 55-3, 48-7, 45-14, 43-26, 52-14, 41-10, 51-17, 66-14 — the lone exception being 27-20.
The Cougars had no chance to win a berth in the College Football Playoff — fans and some media entertained that notion — but the committee should have recognized the extraordinary nature of the season and the extraordinary effort the Cougars made to rebuild the season and perform on the field. All those things considered, the committee should have put them among the top 12. They owed them that much.