Barring a complete collapse, the likelihood that BYU will play in the Big 12 Conference championship game is increasing.
If the Cougars — who are currently 9-0 overall and 6-0 in Big 12 play — go 2-1 or 3-0 over the final three weeks of the regular season, they will clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game, which is set for Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
That sets the stage for what will be another important week of Big 12 football, after the league race has been thrown into chaos over the past few weeks.
BYU is currently one game ahead of second-place Colorado in the league standings, while there are four teams with 4-2 records in Big 12 action — and two of those teams will play this weekend.
How might Week 12 of the 2024 college football season impact BYU in its pursuit of a spot in the Big 12 championship game and a potential berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff?
Here’s a look at BYU’s game this weekend against Kansas, what other stakes are on the line in the Big 12, and which top-25 games could impact the Cougars.
Note: The Houston-Arizona game is being played Friday night, with all other games being played Saturday.
Who is BYU playing this week?
- Kansas (3-6, 2-4 Big 12) at No. 6 BYU (9-0, 6-0 Big 12), 8:15 p.m. MST (ESPN)
What’s at stake: BYU kept its unbeaten season going by the slimmest of margins last week, rallying past Utah in a controversial finish that was capped by a 44-yard game-winning field goal from Will Ferrin with four seconds to play.
The Cougars return home for their first game at LaVell Edwards Stadium since needing a game-winning touchdown pass to Darius Lassiter with 10 seconds to play to beat Oklahoma State back on Oct. 18. BYU plays two of its final three games at home.
Kansas, meanwhile, is playing some of its best ball right now in what’s been a trying season. Despite the record, the Jayhawks have won two of their past three games, beating then-ranked Iowa State last week one game after nearly upsetting rival Kansas State.
What a win would mean for BYU: The Cougars would move one step closer to a berth in the Big 12 championship game with a victory and keep their undefeated record intact. BYU also jumped three spots in the College Football Playoff rankings this past week, and a win would likely keep them near their current spot at No. 6, bettering their odds at an at-large berth if it came to that.
How could Week 12 games impact the Big 12 race?
- Houston (4-5, 3-3 Big 12) at Arizona (3-6, 1-5 Big 12), 8:15 p.m. MST Friday (FS1)
What’s at stake: Houston is the team on a roll here, having won its past two games, over Utah and Kansas State. If Houston wins on the road at Arizona and can beat Baylor at home the next week, it would be bowl eligible heading into its regular-season finale at BYU on Nov. 30.
Arizona has had a tumultuous season and has lost five straight. The Wildcats, technically, can still become bowl eligible if they win out, but that seems unlikely at this point, considering how far south things have gone.
Who BYU should root for: It doesn’t matter. While a Houston win could help Houston become bowl eligible by the time it plays BYU, it’s unlikely a win over Houston in the regular-season finale does much for BYU’s CFP resume.
- Utah (4-5, 1-5 Big 12) at No. 17 Colorado (7-2, 5-1 Big 12), 10 a.m. MST (Fox)
What’s at stake: Utah is reeling at this point, having lost five straight games, including a heartbreaker to rival BYU last week. The Utes are also down a staggering number of offensive playmakers, the latest of which is quarterback Brandon Rose, who showed promise in the BYU game. Now he’s out for the season with a lower leg injury.
Colorado, meanwhile, is as hot as anyone in the league. The Buffaloes have won six of their past seven games, including three straight, all by double-digits. Colorado can earn its way to the Big 12 championship by winning its final three regular-season games.
Who BYU should root for: Cheer for Colorado. If the Buffaloes and Cougars meet in the Big 12 championship, it would be better for BYU’s resume to have Colorado as highly ranked as possible.
Plus, if there’s any realistic hope that the Big 12 could get two teams in the College Football Playoff, the likely candidates are BYU and Colorado. The most likely way for it to happen is for both the Cougars and Buffaloes to win out in the regular season, then have Colorado edge BYU in a tight game in the Big 12 championship.
- Baylor (5-4, 3-3 Big 12) at West Virginia (5-4, 4-2 Big 12), 2 p.m. MST (ESPN2)
What’s at stake: Don’t let that conference record fool you, Baylor is one of the hotter teams in the league right now. The Bears have won three straight to put themselves in solid position to become bowl eligible, helping to cool off what looked like a scorching hot seat for coach Dave Aranda after the season’s first month.
West Virginia is holding on to slim hopes to win their way into the Big 12 title game, though it would need a good amount of help to get there. Still, the Mountaineers have been playing well, winning their past two games, both on the road. Now they return home for two straight.
Who BYU should cheer for: Cheer for Baylor. BYU beat the Bears in Waco, Texas, back at the end of September, and the better Baylor does, the better that win looks for the Cougars. There’s a chance the Bears could go 8-4 in the regular season if they can keep their hot play going.
- Arizona State (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) at No. 16 Kansas State (7-2, 4-2 Big 12), 5 p.m. MST (ESPN)
What’s at stake: The Sun Devils will roll into Manhattan, Kansas, with a two-game winning streak in tow. Outside of a loss to Cincinnati where starting quarterback Sam Leavitt wasn’t available due to injury, Arizona State has been competitive week in and week out in Big 12 play, and the Sun Devils will have a chance to further shake up the Big 12 chase with a win.
The Wildcats are also squarely in the league race, though the loser of Saturday’s game will take a big blow with their third conference loss. Kansas State is the second-highest ranked Big 12 team in the CFP rankings and has a victory over Colorado, but a loss at BYU. The Wildcats need a win, after falling at Houston before a bye week.
Who BYU should cheer for: This is a tough one, but cheer for Kansas State. Arizona State is BYU’s toughest remaining opponent and the Cougars could add to their resume with a victory at the Sun Devils, particularly if Arizona State is still a factor in the Big 12 race at that point.
BYU, though, already has a 38-9 win over Kansas State, and if the Wildcats keep winning, that is also a resume boost for the Cougars, one that’s likely to have a bigger impact with the CFP committee — considering that Kansas State is currently No. 16 in the CFP rankings.
- Cincinnati (5-4, 3-3 Big 12) at Iowa State (7-2, 4-2 Big 12), 6 p.m. MST (Fox)
What’s at stake: At one point, it looked like both of these programs could have a major impact on the Big 12 race in November. That still could be the case for Iowa State, though the Cyclones are on a two-game losing streak and are in desperate need of a quick turnaround to stay in contention.
Cincinnati has lost two straight games as well and is more of a long shot to stay in the league chase. For the Bearcats, the likely focus revolves around becoming bowl eligible, and Cincinnati needs just one more win to attain that status.
Who BYU should cheer for: Cheer for Cincinnati. Even though BYU doesn’t play either of these teams in the regular season, the Bearcats could do a favor to the rest of the team in the Big 12 race by giving Iowa State its third conference loss and thinning out the congestion at the top of the league standings a bit.
Three Week 12 top 25 games that could impact BYU
- Boston College at No. 14 SMU, 1:30 p.m. MST (ESPN)
Why it matters to BYU: SMU is the only team in the ACC who still has an unbeaten league record and the Mustangs have a direct path to the ACC championship game if they win their final three regular-season games. If SMU wins the ACC, that’s a big boost to BYU’s resume, after the Cougars beat the Mustangs back in Week 2.
- No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia, 5:30 p.m. MST (ABC)
Why it matters to BYU: This is the final game against a top-25 team for both squads during the regular season, and it’s likely to factor into the CFP chase. Georgia already has two losses this season, and a third could put the Bulldogs on the brink of missing the playoffs. Tennessee, meanwhile, is in better position, though a second loss could prove costly in the SEC race. Plus, if the Volunteers lose, they wouldn’t be breathing down BYU’s neck in the CFP rankings — assuming, of course, that the Cougars win this weekend.
- No. 13 Boise State at San Jose State, 5 p.m. MST (CBS Sports Network)
Why it matters to BYU: While this one may seem to not have much impact on BYU — and in the long run, it may not — this is still one to monitor. The Broncos are in position to potentially steal a top 4 playoff seed (with a subsequent CFP first-round bye) if the Big 12 continues to beat itself up at the top of the standings and the Broncos continue to win.
San Jose State is only one of Boise State’s final three regular-season opponents with a winning record right now and represents perhaps the best chance for Boise State to be handed a debilitating loss — one that would likely ensure BYU wouldn’t fall below the Broncos in the CFP rankings if the Cougars suffer their own loss.