The Big 12 race has seemingly gone through a twist or two every week of the 2024 season, and it’s created a situation wherein the league finds itself in a disadvantageous position in the College Football Playoff race.
Sure, there’s been parity in the Big 12, but there’s no clear-cut favorite, and it’s reflected in the latest CFP rankings.
Where does that leave the league?
With one week left in the regular season, Arizona State and Iowa State are in the best position to earn spots in the Big 12 title game, set for Dec. 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
BYU and Colorado also have paths to the title game — though they both need some help — while nine total teams are still alive in the conference race.
Earlier this week, the Deseret News took a deep dive into the Big 12 championship clinching scenarios, and let’s just say, it’s going to be an interesting weekend.
Here’s our look at how the Big 12 stacks up heading into the final week of the 2024 regular season.
1. Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Climbed one spot
- Last week: Beat then-No. 14 BYU, 28-23
- Next game: Saturday at Arizona, 1:30 p.m. MST (Fox)
The Sun Devils are the latest Big 12 team to stake their claim at being king of the hill after they beat BYU in Tempe. Arizona State dominated the first half against the Cougars, then withstood a second-half rally before a wild, thrilling finish that captured the nation’s attention for its zaniness.
If the Sun Devils beat their rivals on Saturday, they are headed to the Big 12 championship in a season they were predicted to finish last in the league.
Arizona has had a forgettable season, and Arizona State could put the final stamp on a year it flipped the script and has excelled under second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham.
2. Iowa State Cyclones (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Climbed one spot
- Last week: Beat Utah, 31-28
- Next game: Saturday vs. No. 24 Kansas State, 5:30 p.m. MST (Fox)
The Cyclones were nearly upset last week against Utah, but Iowa State drove for the game-winning score with a minute and a half to play. That sets up the opportunity for Iowa State to win its way into the Big 12 championship.
If the Cyclones beat Kansas State — easily the most difficult final-week opponent of the four teams tied for the Big 12 lead — then Iowa State gets its shot at a league title in Arlington.
3. BYU Cougars (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Climbed one spot
- Last week: Lost to then-No. 21 Arizona State, 28-23
- Next game: Saturday vs. Houston, 8:15 p.m. MST (ESPN)
OK, who hit the self-destruct button on the BYU season? Fess up.
After two straight losses, the Cougars no longer control their own destiny in the Big 12 race. BYU started out painfully slow in a monumental matchup against Arizona State and trailed 21-3 at halftime.
While the Cougars had their chances to rally and win in the second half, errors again plagued them in critical moments for their second straight loss.
Now, BYU needs to get itself right and beat a struggling Houston team at home. There is still a path to the Big 12 championship for BYU, but it will need some help, most likely from either Kansas State or Arizona, to have a shot at making the Big 12 title game.
4. Kansas State Wildcats (8-3, 5-3 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Climbed one spot
- Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 41-15
- Next game: Saturday at No. 18 Iowa State, 5:30 p.m. MST (Fox)
The Wildcats, one week after a crushing loss at home against Arizona State, were able to rally and easily beat Cincinnati. Kansas State led 27-3 at halftime as it leaned on its rushing attack to grab the victory over the Bearcats.
The Wildcats would need a lot of chaos during the final week of the regular season to make the Big 12 championship, but that door is still open, thanks to five teams trailing the four league leaders by one game.
First task, though: beat Iowa State on the road. If Kansas State does that, it helps throw more uncertainty into the Big 12 race.
5. Colorado Buffaloes (8-3, 6-2 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Dropped four spots
- Last week: Lost to Kansas, 37-21
- Next game: Friday vs. Oklahoma State, 10 a.m. MST (ABC)
Colorado had the path to the Big 12 championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff sitting right in its sights — then the Buffaloes ran into the buzzsaw that has become Kansas and were derailed.
The Buffaloes couldn’t keep pace with a Jayhawks team that ran over, around and through them and now need help to make the Big 12 title game.
First, they’ll need to beat last-place Oklahoma State on Black Friday, then get some help, though their path to Arlington isn’t nearly as clear cut as that of Arizona State or Iowa State.
6. Kansas Jayhawks (5-6, 4-4 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Climbed two spots
- Last week: Beat then-No. 16 Colorado, 37-21
- Next game: Saturday at Baylor, 10 a.m. MST (ESPN2)
Who’s the hottest team in the Big 12 right now? The Jayhawks, of course.
As a symbol of the parity that is eating the league apart in its bid to try to make the playoff, Kansas beat a ranked team for the third straight week, this time blowing out Colorado.
It’s wild to think that the Jayhawks, even with this hot streak, still need one more win to secure bowl eligibility, but that’s the case, and Kansas will have to do it on the road at Baylor, one of the other Big 12 teams that is playing its best ball in November.
7. Baylor Bears (7-4, 5-3 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Dropped one spot
- Last week: Beat Houston, 20-10
- Next game: Saturday vs. Kansas, 10 a.m. MST (ESPN2)
Baylor is riding high, as it earned its fifth straight victory by going on the road and beating an offensively challenged Houston squad. While it wasn’t the prettiest of the Bears’ victories during this winning streak, Baylor kept the momentum going and still has a mathematical shot at a Big 12 title if it gets some help.
Of course, now the Bears have to host the other hottest team in the Big 12 in Kansas. The Jayhawks are fresh off three straight wins over ranked teams and are fighting for bowl eligibility.
While this game isn’t likely to have a lot of bearing on the title race, it should be an entertaining matchup.
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-4, 5-3 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Dropped one spot
- Last week: Beat Oklahoma State, 56-48
- Next game: Saturday vs. West Virginia, 10 a.m. MST (FS1)
Texas Tech found itself in a high-scoring thriller with Oklahoma State last week and prevailed with back-to-back fourth-quarter touchdowns — one to cap an offensive drive and the other on a fumble recovery in the end zone.
That keeps the Red Raiders mathematically in the Big 12 hunt. While they’re a long shot to make the Big 12 championship and require a lot of help, they can finish the regular season with wins in three of their last four games if they beat West Virginia.
9. TCU Horned Frogs (7-4, 5-3 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Climbed two spots
- Last week: Beat Arizona, 49-28
- Next game: Saturday at Cincinnati, 4 p.m. (ESPN+)
While the focus around the league has been on other teams making unexpected runs in the Big 12 chase, the Horned Frogs have quietly gone about winning.
In its latest victory, TCU put up 450 yards of total offense in blowing out Arizona, and the Horned Frogs have now won four of their last five games.
It’s fair to wonder a bit what could have been for TCU, which is one game out of the Big 12 lead with a now-struggling Cincinnati up next. What if the Horned Frogs wouldn’t have dropped early-season Big 12 games to UCF and Houston?
10. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-5, 5-3 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Dropped one spot
- Last week: Beat UCF, 31-21
- Next game: Saturday at Texas Tech, 10 a.m. MST (FS1)
West Virginia clinched bowl eligibility last week, taking care of UCF while ending the Knights’ hopes of making the postseason. The Mountaineers built up a 28-7 lead early in the third quarter and didn’t let UCF get close enough to seriously challenge.
Can the Mountaineers finish the regular season above .500? It’s going to be a challenge facing Texas Tech on the road, but West Virginia has won three of its last four games, and two of those victories came away from Morgantown.
11. Cincinnati Bearcats (5-6, 3-5 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Dropped one spot
- Last week: Lost to Kansas State, 41-15
- Next game: Saturday vs. TCU, 4 p.m. MST (ESPN+)
The Bearcats were on track and looking to be a contender in the Big 12 a month ago, but four straight losses have derailed the momentum.
It didn’t help that Cincinnati has played three Big 12 contenders on the road in its past four games, including at Kansas State last week. Now, the Bearcats need to beat TCU to attain bowl eligibility.
While there are positives to take away from Cincinnati’s second year in the Big 12, the last month has shown that the Bearcats still have some things to work through to be a contender.
12. Arizona Wildcats (4-7, 2-6 Big 12)
- Poll movement: No change
- Last week: Lost to TCU, 49-28
- Next game: Saturday vs. No. 16 Arizona State, 1:30 p.m. MST (Fox)
A bad start to each half cost Arizona, as the Wildcats fell on the road against TCU. Arizona overcame an early 14-0 deficit and trailed 21-13 at halftime, but the Horned Frogs created some distance by scoring two touchdowns in the first seven minutes of the third quarter.
With bowl eligibility no longer an option, it’s time to play a bit of spoiler. Can the Wildcats beat their rivals, Arizona State, and put some doubt into whether the Sun Devils will have a chance to win the Big 12?
13. Houston Cougars (4-7, 3-5 Big 12)
- Poll movement: No change
- Last week: Lost to Baylor, 20-10
- Next game: Saturday at No. 19 BYU, 8:15 p.m. MST (ESPN)
Houston lost its second straight game last weekend, ensuring that the Cougars will be staying home for the postseason. Following the loss to Baylor, Houston — which is last in the country in scoring — fired its offensive coordinator.
With little motivation going into the season finale, can Houston spoil BYU’s season? BYU is still in the running for a spot in the Big 12 championship, but Houston could knock them out with a win — and Houston has shown it’s capable of an upset. Just ask Kansas State.
14. UCF Knights (4-7, 2-6 Big 12)
- Poll movement: No change
- Last week: Lost to West Virginia, 31-21
- Next game: Friday vs. Utah, 6 p.m. MST (Fox)
Unlike UCF’s first season in the Big 12, the Knights won’t be going bowling in 2024. UCF couldn’t keep pace with West Virginia, and the Knights’ path to bowl eligibility was stifled with one week left in the regular season.
It sets up a Black Friday matchup against Utah with nothing on the line for either team. Who will win the primetime matchup on Senior Day for UCF?
15. Utah Utes (4-7, 1-7 Big 12)
- Poll movement: Dropped one spot
- Last week: Lost to then-No. 22 Iowa State, 31-28
- Next game: Friday at UCF, 6 p.m. MST (Fox)
Utah gave Iowa State a major scare, but the Utes couldn’t quite pull the upset after they led for a brief time in the fourth quarter.
The irony is that Utah could have done its rival, BYU, a big favor by upsetting the Cyclones — that would have allowed BYU the opportunity to win its regular-season finale and earn a spot in the Big 12 championship.
Instead, the Cyclones still have a more favorable path to the title game.
It’s a disappointing end to what’s been a successful senior class at Utah, and the Utes finished Big 12 play without a home conference win.
Can Utah win Friday and avoid its worst record in the Kyle Whittingham era?
16. Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-8, 0-8 Big 12)
- Poll movement: No change
- Last week: Lost to Texas Tech, 56-48
- Next game: Friday at No. 25 Colorado, 10 a.m. MST (ABC)
For the first time in weeks, Oklahoma State was competitive in the fourth quarter and had a chance to beat Texas Tech. The Red Raiders, though, turned a 42-42 tie into a 56-42 lead over four minutes — that included a defensive score — and the Cowboys stayed winless in Big 12 action.
There’s one more chance to give Mike Gundy’s program a win, though a wounded Colorado team — coming off its own humbling loss, at Kansas — still has hopes to make it to the Big 12 championship.