During the last month of the 2024 college football regular season, there was real worry that the Big 12, one of the four power leagues at the FBS level, could see its conference champion miss out on a top-four seed in the new 12-team College Football Playoff.
The league’s parity has led to several teams being in contention for the conference title, but no one who stood out as a real playoff challenger as the calendar churned into mid-November.
Ultimately, Arizona State came on strong, won the Big 12 championship and earned a top-four seed in the CFP, which also gave the Sun Devils a first-round bye.
With the CFB adopting a straight seeding system this year — unlike last year, where the top four conference champions in the CFP rankings earned a top-four seed and the bye — could parity be a hindrance to the Big 12 this season?
That is one of the things that stood out when the opening edition of the 2025 ESPN Football Power Index rankings were released this week.
The Big 12 wasn’t as well represented as the other power conferences at the top of the FPI rankings, which “is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is,” according to ESPN.
Will another balanced season prove to be problematic for the Big 12 come the postseason?
Here’s an in-depth look at how ESPN’s FPI projects things playing out for the Big 12 this season.
Big 12 teams in ESPN’s Football Power Index
Rank — Team — FPI score
- 21. Kansas State — 10.8
- 24. Arizona State — 9.5
- 29. BYU — 8.4
- 30. Kansas — 8.4
- 32. TCU — 8.2
- 33. Baylor — 8.0
- 35. Texas Tech — 7.4
- 37. UCF — 6.9
- 45. Iowa State — 4.8
- 46. Utah — 4.8
- 49. Colorado — 4.2
- 53. Cincinnati — 3.6
- 66. West Virginia — 0.5
- 67. Oklahoma State — 0.3
- 69. Arizona — minus-1.0
- 75. Houston — minus-3.7
What does ESPN’s FPI project for the Big 12 race?
Five teams with 10% or better odds to win the Big 12 championship, one year after four teams tied at 7-2 in conference action and Arizona State and Iowa State won tiebreakers over BYU and Colorado to advance to the league championship game.
Kansas State has the best odds in the FPI formula to win the 2025 Big 12 championship at 19.9%, followed by defending champ Arizona State at 13.0%, Kansas at 11.3%, BYU at 10.4% and Texas Tech at 10.3%.
There are also 12 teams with a better than 66% chance of hitting six wins and bowl eligibility.
Last year, nine Big 12 teams played in bowl games, and they collectively had a 4-5 record. That included league champion Arizona State playing in a College Football Playoff quarterfinal game, losing 39-31 in double overtime in the Peach Bowl.
How does the Big 12 stack up against other power conferences in ESPN’s FPI?
When compared to the other power conferences — the SEC, Big Ten and ACC — the Big 12’s parity is reflected in the rankings, though that could hurt them again in the playoff race.
The Big 12 has the fewest number of teams, two, in the FPI’s top 25 among power leagues, and its top team — Kansas State at No. 21 — is ranked lower than at least the top three schools from all of the other power conferences.
The Big 12 also has eight teams in the top 37 and 11 in the top 50, with its lowest-ranked team, Houston, at No. 75.
The SEC has the top rankings among all conferences, with five teams in the FPI’s top 10 and 13 of its 16 league schools in the top 25. The SEC’s lowest-ranked team is Vanderbilt at No. 56.
The Big Ten has more top-end talent than the Big 12, with three teams in the top 10, six in the top 25 and, like the Big 12, eight in the top 37, though the Big Ten’s next two come in at No. 38 and No. 39, The Big Ten also has 13 in the FPI’s top 50, two more than the Big 12, while the Big Ten’s lowest-ranked team is Purdue at No. 92
The ACC, meanwhile, has three teams ranked in the FPI’s top 25, with all three — Miami at No. 9, Clemson at No. 11 and SMU at No. 20 — all above the Big 12’s two teams, including Arizona State at No. 22, in the top 25.
Where the Big 12 has the ACC bested is in overall depth. The ACC has five teams in the top 37 and eight in the top 50 — both lower numbers than the Big 12 — and the ACC’s lowest-ranked team is Wake Forest at No. 89.
What does ESPN’s FPI think of the Big 12 and its College Football Playoff hopes?
All of those numbers indicate that the Big 12 has the toughest road to higher seeds in the College Football Playoff, which is transitioning to a straight seeding system this year after last season, when the top four conference champions earned a top-four seed and first-round bye.
There are 11 SEC teams with better than 10% odds of making the CFP, while the Big Ten has six and the ACC has four.
The Big 12, to its credit, has seven schools with better than 10% odds to make the CFP, second-most among all conferences — another indication of the parity there is expected to be in the league.
Those include Kansas State leading the way at 22.2% odds to make the playoff, followed by Arizona State (16.1%), Kansas (13.4%), BYU (12.6%), Baylor (10.5%), TCU (10.3%) and Texas Tech (10.3%).
Only one of those schools has a better than 1% chance of making the national championship — the Wildcats have 1.4% odds to make the national championship game, with 0.4% odds to win it.
In an assessment of the FPI rankings, multiple ESPN writers weighed in on how the formula treated the Big 12.
Paolo Uggetti said he believes the FPI formula is “slightly undervaluing” the defending Big 12 champs, Arizona State, even with star running back Cam Skattebo in the NFL.
“They also return a quarterback in Sam Leavitt (2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns last year) who could be a Heisman contender, wide receiver Jordyn Tyson (1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns) and defensive back Xavion Alford, among several other starters and stalwarts of last year’s Cinderella season,” Uggetti wrote. “... It would not shock me to see them make another playoff run.”
Colleagues Jake Trotter and Bill Connelly, meanwhile, identified Big 12 teams when asked about power conference teams outside the top 25 that could make a run.
Trotter pointed to Texas Tech, which has added 13 four-star transfers in a busy portal offseason for the Red Raiders.
“Texas Tech landed the nation’s top transfer portal class, beefing up the trenches on both sides of the ball to a team that went 8-5 last season. With 24 career starts behind him, quarterback Behren Morton should be even better after throwing for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns last year,” Trotter wrote.
“If the portal additions playing up front defensively, combined with the arrival of new defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, can bolster a unit that ranked just 108th in EPA last year, the Red Raiders could threaten for a conference title and playoff berth in what figures to be another wide-open Big 12.”
Connelly identified two Big 12 teams that could make a run: TCU and Baylor.
I would say that half the Big 12 is capable of playing at a top-15 or top-20 level and making a conference title (and, therefore, CFP) run, but I’m particularly intrigued by the duo of No. 32 TCU and No. 33 Baylor,” Connelly wrote.
“They both won six of their last seven to end the season, and they both return stellar quarterbacks in Josh Hoover (TCU) and Sawyer Robertson (Baylor). I feel like I trust TCU’s returning personnel more, but Baylor’s Dave Aranda was extremely active in the transfer portal, too.”
