While Texas Tech and BYU are viewed as the frontrunners in the Big 12 going into the 2026 season, recent history has proven that the league is prone to parity.
Others, like Utah, Arizona or Houston, could also get in the race to win the conference and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Of the aforementioned five teams, only Arizona didn’t land in the preseason US LBM coaches top 25 rankings that were released Tuesday — Texas Tech came in at No. 12, BYU at No. 15, Utah at No. 21 and Houston at No. 24.
Following the coaches poll release, The Athletic aimed to identify eight potential CFP sleepers outside the first top 25 rankings of the season.
Of those eight, two were from the Big 12 — TCU and Oklahoma State.
The Horned Frogs went 9-4 a season ago, with a 6-3 mark in Big 12 play. TCU also beat USC in the Alamo Bowl last year.
Chris Kamrani was the one to pick TCU as a potential playoff sleeper. The Horned Frogs have the Big 12’s most recent win in the College Football Playoff — they advanced to the national championship game in the 2022 season under then first-year coach Sonny Dykes.
“TCU can absolutely win a weak Big 12 in 2026, and therefore supplant its Lone Star State peer, Texas Tech, as the Big 12’s CFP representative. We mustn’t forget that the Horned Frogs made an improbable run to the CFP title game in 2023 (although the score of that game remains painful to even Google years later),” Kamrani wrote.
“Sonny Dykes has a track record with quarterbacks bursting onto the national stage as the focal point of his Air Raid attack. Josh Hoover is off to try to help Indiana repeat as national champs. In is Harvard transfer Jaden Craig, who was one of the most sought-after QBs in the transfer portal and will get to showcase his talents at the P4 level.”
The Cowboys, meanwhile, would be a more shocking playoff contender. While Oklahoma State traditionally has found success and been an upper-tier team in the Big 12, the Cowboys fell on hard times the past two seasons and haven’t won a league game since 2023.
The program brought in North Texas’ Eric Morris to replace Mike Gundy, and Morris brought several talented playmakers with him, sparking optimism that Oklahoma State could bounce back quickly.
That’s what Chris Vannini believes could happen.
“It’s shocking that the Cowboys haven’t won a Big 12 game over the past two years, but the fix has come by importing almost everything from North Texas, which was one win away from the CFP last season. That influx includes head coach Eric Morris, defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity and much of last year’s No. 1 offense (in yards and points). Among the Mean Green transfers: quarterback Drew Mestemaker (the nation’s leading passer), running back Caleb Hawkins (29 touchdowns as a freshman) and receiver Wyatt Young (1,264 yards),” Vannini wrote.
“I would be shocked if this Oklahoma State team could not find its way to a bowl game, and a better-than-expected transition with so many key faces familiar with each other makes for a high ceiling.”
