Health officials measure the spread of the novel coronavirus in several ways in Utah. The most common is a raw number of new cases diagnosed daily, which clearly shows a surge since the beginning of the school year. The state reported its highest single-day increase on Friday with 1,117 new cases.
But other measures put Utah in a relatively favorable light. The state may rank 25th nationally in terms of cases per capita, but it ranks 45th in deaths per capita, according to worldometers.info. That reflects a young and mostly healthy population.
The CDC reports that Utah’s hospitalization rate peaked on July 11 at a rate of 8.6 per 100,000 population, then began to fall. It was down to 3.7 as of Sept. 12.
In short, there are statistics to justify almost any point of view.
But people who parse things this way are only kidding themselves. As Gov. Gary Herbert made clear on Thursday, the state’s current surge is a result of people not taking COVID-19 seriously enough, and the consequences for that are unacceptable.
As cases rise, hospitalizations and deaths follow a few weeks later. Those figures lag the daily new-case numbers.
Young people may feel invulnerable. They may look at statistics for their age demographic and figure they can throw caution to the wind with little worry. They may face social pressure to be reckless. But, as the governor said, their mild infections easily spread to older, more vulnerable people whose infections end up much more serious.
Ask yourself, how many more such deaths in Utah are acceptable? If the answer is anything above zero, your priorities are wrong.
If you refuse to wear a mask or are getting tired of all the rules, ask yourself, who are you liable to hurt? How many of your older friends and loved ones are expendable?
Dr. Thomas Tsai, a surgeon and health policy researcher at Harvard University, told CNBC on Friday that following the oft-repeated advice about hygiene, masks and social distancing remains the best way to control the virus, but these measures must be followed over a long, sustained period.
Humans tend to tire quickly. Pandemic fatigue sets in. But this is a long fight.
“We all want to find heroes and villains, and what we’ve learned from this pandemic is that there are no shortcuts,” Tsai was quoted as saying. “The countries that have done well have had sustained surveillance and testing and contact tracing and masking and physical distancing and even intermittent shutdowns for six months.”
He was addressing a recent resurgence in European countries that thought they had the pandemic licked. The truth is that, until a reliable vaccine is available and obtained by a large percentage of people, the best any state or nation can do is to contain it through proper action.
That’s no longer happening in Utah.
Health officials say 40% of Utah’s new cases come from Utah County, home to two large universities. But the surge is evident statewide.
Dr. Eddie Stenehjem, an infectious diseases physician with Intermountain Healthcare, added this warning on Thursday: If Utahns continue as they have been in recent weeks, “There will be a lot of really sick people and that will quickly outpace the resources.”
No one should find the current trajectory acceptable. Utahns need to rededicate themselves to wearing masks, social distancing and frequent hand washing. Until an effective vaccine is available, there is no other choice.