Whether control of the House of the Representatives goes to the Republicans or the Democrats in next week’s elections hinges on several competitive races
Headed into the Nov. 5 general election, Republicans hold a slight majority of 220 seats while Democrats have 212 seats (there are three vacancies). Every two years, all 435 seats in the U.S. House are up for election.
On Oct. 8, four weeks ahead of the election, FiveThirtyEight published the results of its Election Day simulation. Essentially, the report found control of the House could go either way. Running 1,000 simulations, Democrats were predicted to win control 505 times and Republicans 495 times.
In other words, it’s a statistical toss-up.
With polling margins this slim and a bevy of races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, just a handful of races could end up determining control of the House. The Decision Desk HQ of The Hill puts Republicans at having a 53% chance of winning the House — with better odds for the GOP winning the Senate.
As of Tuesday, the Cook Political Report has 27 races as toss-ups — 15 Republican and 12 Democrat. These are currently the most competitive House races — some of them are in swing states like Arizona and Michigan.
Here is a closer look at five of the closest House races.
Arizona District 1
President Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win Arizona since former President Bill Clinton ran. The state is one of the most watched battleground states in the election with both the Harris and Trump camp thinking if they sway Latter-day Saint voters, that could contribute to a victory.
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District covers part of Phoenix and other areas in Maricopa County like Scottsdale. It’s represented by Republican David Schweikert, who rode the tea party wave into Congress. He’s the incumbent running for reelection against Amish Shah, the Democratic nominee who is an emergency physician and former state lawmaker.
Polling from FiveThirtyEight shows the two have been neck-and-neck in the race. According to Axios, 38.5% of the congressional district are Republicans and under 28% are Democrats.
Michigan District 7
In Michigan, another swing state, the 7th Congressional District is listed as a toss-up race.
The boundaries include Lansing, the state capital, as well as some surrounding cities and towns. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, currently holds the seat, but did not seek reelection. She is instead vying for Michigan’s open Senate seat.
Republican Tom Barrett and Democrat Curtis Hertel are facing off against each other. Barrett is a former state lawmaker and so is Hertel — Hertel also served as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s director of legislative affairs.
Oregon District 5
Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is fighting to hang onto her seat as she faces Democratic challenger Janelle Bynum, a state lawmaker. The district includes Portland suburbs and stretches to Bend.
Axios called this race one that could tip the House.
It also received coverage from The New York Times in an article about the state of races in some swing districts. The Times noted Chavez-DeRemer is leaning into a law and order message as Oregon grapples with decriminalizing and recriminalizing drugs. Her opponent Bynum is attempting to paint Chavez-DeRemer “as a rubber stamp in Congress for the Republican agenda.”
New Mexico District 2
Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez is attempting to hang onto his seat as he faces a challenge from Republican Yvette Herrell — who previously held the seat. Herrell lost her bid for reelection in 2022 to Vasquez.
The race in 2022 was tight — with Vasquez earning 50.35% of the vote and Herrell getting 49.65%.
Calling it “one of the swingiest districts in the country,” NPR reported this district has gone from red to blue and blue to red over and over again for more than five decades. It covers southern parts of New Mexico.
Pennsylvania District 10
Republican Rep. Scott Perry has served in the House of Representatives since 2013 after he left the state legislature to run for office. He is facing off against Democrat Janelle Stelson — a political newcomer and former TV news anchor.
Perry is the former chair and a current member of the House Freedom Caucus.
The latest news in the race is that five former Republican representatives, Barbara Comstock, Adam Kinzinger , Denver Riggleman, Dave Trott and Joe Walsh, endorsed Stelson. The letter they issued reported on by The Hill referred to the FBI seizing Perry’s phone while investigating efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
“Perhaps nothing is more emblematic of Perry’s brazen self-interest than his involvement in the plot to overturn the results of the 2020 election,” said the letter.
Perry issued a statement to The Hill which said, “It’s not surprising, and certainly pathetic, to watch my former Never Trump colleagues endorse radical Leftists like my opponent.” He also said no one in his district knew who they were.