In one night, has BYU gone from Big 12 pretender to contender?

Warning: The following is not suitable for any member of the BYU football team whose absolute focus must remain on beating Baylor on Saturday. Likewise, any Cougars fan who can’t see that a half-empty glass is also half-full, might also struggle. As for everyone else content with living in the moment — read on.

BYU reported to practice this week ranked in the AP Top 25 and as a contender for the Big 12 championship and the College Football Playoff. Sound crazy? It’s not something anyone outside of the locker room could have expected, especially for a program picked to finish 13th in their 16-team conference — but here they are.

When you crush a contender in the Big 12 opener, you become a contender. Beating No. 13 Kansas State 38-9 Saturday night catapulted the Cougars into the conversation. How long they stay there is up to them, but for now, the glass of blue Kool-Aid is half-full and ready for consumption.

ESPN’s FPI win projections for BYU jumped from 4.7 to 8.3. They now figure the Cougars will win four more games. If true, that would give BYU no worse than a 5-4 conference record and and 8-4 overall mark. Anything better would have them in the mix for the Big 12 championship game.

“We are going to surprise some people,” head coach Kalani Sitake said going into and coming out of fall camp and he reiterated it by the team’s performance against the Wildcats.

No one has been more surprised — or wrong — about the Cougars than Las Vegas. Sportsbooks are 0-4 on projecting BYU’s game-by-game success — and they list Baylor as a slight favorite against the Cougars on Saturday (10 a.m., FS1).

The road ahead

As grand as the weekend was for BYU, the Cougars face eight more conference games that will require the same effort. Success will also hinge on health and some good fortune. Those games were always going to be hard, but in the wake of beating Kansas State, the Cougars can look into the mirror and honestly say, “If we can do that to them, why can’t we beat the others?”

The remaining home games against Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Houston are all potential wins, especially if they are played at night, where BYU is a mind-boggling 24-3 in their last 27 prime-time battles. The Wildcats, Cowboys and Jayhawks are also potential defeats, but they are playing nowhere near their preseason expectations.

Upcoming road games at Baylor, UCF, Utah (Nov. 9) and Arizona State, based on BYU’s current level of play, are also golden opportunities. Thanks to the magic of sports, what was unthinkable a few weeks ago, is being thought about this week.

Back to Baylor

Understandably, the current joy could get redirected on Saturday at Baylor. The last time nationally ranked BYU played in Waco, Gerry Bohanon and the Bears upset them 38-24 in 2021. That was a different Baylor team that went on to win the Big 12 championship and Bohanon is now Retzlaff’s backup at BYU.

This week, Baylor (2-2) is coming off a disheartening overtime loss at Colorado, where it surrendered a 41-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of regulation. They will be eager to bounce back at BYU’s expense. For the Cougars, it’s a chance to reinforce the notion that after taking down a Big 12 contender like Kansas State — they are contenders too.

Questions getting answered

With a quarter of the season over, the only thing perfect about this football team is its 4-0 record. Everything else remains a work in progress, but key areas once deemed highly questionable are starting to get answered.

• Quarterback: After turning the ball over three times at SMU, junior Jake Retzlaff has responded with just one turnover in the last two games, and none against Kansas State. After starting 1 for 5 on Saturday, Retzlaff completed 14 of his next 16 passes and threw two touchdowns. Retzlaff went 0-4 in his starts last season. A year older, and a little wiser, this year’s Cougars are 4-0.
• Running back: Despite injuries to LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati that have kept them out the last two games, BYU has found a replacement that might just keep the job. Sione Moa, a 5-foot-10, 215-pound freshman from Timpview High, earned additional carries with 15 rushes for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Wildcats.
• Offensive line: New offensive line coach TJ Woods had high hopes when he moved 6-8, 320-pound Caleb Etienne to left tackle and the positive payoff has been obvious. Using five different running backs, the ground attack remains a work in progress, but the Cougars are right at their preseason goal of 4 yards per carry (up from 3.5 last season). In the second half against Kansas State, BYU had five runs of 8 yards or more, including bursts of 20 and 21 yards.
• Special teams: Parker Kingston electrified LaVell Edwards Stadium Saturday with a 90-yard punt return (that was more like 150). It was BYU’s first punt return for a touchdown in 11 years. The week before at Wyoming, Keelan Marion returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown — the first such return for the Cougars in 10 years. Place kicker Will Ferrin is 6 of 8 on field goals, including a 50-yarder. He is 15 for 15 in extra points.
• Defense: Jay Hill’s second season as BYU’s defensive coordinator is living up to his reputation. In all areas — defensive line, linebackers and secondary, the Cougars have shown improvement with the most telling stat about touchdowns. BYU and Minnesota are the only FBS programs who haven’t allowed a touchdown pass through four games. Against their pair of P4 opponents, SMU and Kansas State, BYU didn’t allow a single touchdown. Prior to Saturday, the Wildcats had scored no fewer than 28 points in 11 consecutive games and all they could muster was three field goals. The Cougars held the Mustangs to five field goals on their home field. Saturday night, in the same venue, SMU put 66 points on TCU.
• Cosmo: Prior to Saturday, if you wondered whether the BYU mascot could do a back flip while holding a 70-pound barbell — that was on fire —that question was answered in the affirmative. Well done, Cosmo.

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Dave McCann is a sportswriter and columnist for the Deseret News and is a play-by-play announcer and show host for BYUtv/ESPN+. He co-hosts “Y’s Guys” at ysguys.com and is the author of the children’s book “C is for Cougar,” available at deseretbook.com.