Predicting how Utah and BYU finish: So many factors and big challenges await

How should we predict the final records for Utah and BYU football in 2026?

Both are coming off tremendous seasons at 11 wins for the Utes and 12 wins and a Big 12 title game appearance for the Cougars.

Both have the respect of most college football experts.

Utah: A team of big possibilities.

BYU: Expectations loom big.

New Utah coach Morgan Scalley is being given tremendous respect for his work as longtime defensive coordinator under Kyle Whittingham. He has a trio of offensive weapons returning, including quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin and running back Wayshawn Parker.

The Utes are expected to remain true to their tradition of playing physical and a tough-guy brand of football, and the schedule is manageable with no Texas Tech on the slate.

Down south, BYU returns a respectable roster of starters and key backups, including the Big 12’s top running back, LJ Martin, and QB Bear Bachmeier. BYU has most of its offensive line and defense returning.

BYU is expected to be better on both sides of the ball and could have the most potential NFL draftees on the squad since 1996.

So, what’s the prediction for how these two finish?

Most experts predict BYU will finish second behind Texas Tech in league play and the Utes will be right behind the Cougars at No. 3.

Here’re a few guesses for the Utes:

• Stewart Mandel (The Athletic): 7-5 overall (4-5 in Big 12). He cites a potential learning curve for Scalley and his staff, plus roster attrition (including players and assistants who followed Whittingham), as reasons for regression. 
• CBS Sports (game-by-game Big 12 projections): 10-2 regular season (7-2 Big 12). Projected losses only to BYU and at TCU; wins include Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, at Colorado, at Cincinnati, at Arizona and West Virginia. Tied for third in the projected standings (Holiday Bowl). 
• ESPN FPI (Football Power Index): 7.7 projected wins (roughly 7.7–4.4 overall). Ranked No. 31 nationally / 3rd in Big 12; 5.9% chance to win the Big 12, 11.1% chance to make the CFP. 
• ESPN SP+ (Bill Connelly): Around 8.4 average wins in one projection (or lower in final preseason updates, with Utah ranked 24th–30th overall after a larger drop due to the coaching change and line turnover). Projected roughly 5.4–5.7 conference wins in related breakdowns. 
• Athlon Sports: Projects Utah 4th in the Big 12 (national ranking around 20); contender but no exact win total specified in available details. 

Here are some projections for the Cougars, who were ranked No. 14 in the preseason AP poll.

• Stewart Mandel (The Athletic): 11-1 regular season (8-1 in Big 12), then a win over Houston in the Big 12 championship game (for a CFP berth). He also projects an upset of No. 4 Notre Dame and a top-10 finish.
• CBS Sports (game-by-game Big 12 projections): 11-1 regular season (9-0 Big 12), with the lone loss to Notre Dame; projects a Big 12 title-game appearance (and possible Alamo Bowl if they fall short of the CFP). One related CBS preseason bowl/CFP projection had them as a 10-seed in the playoff.
• Sporting News (betting preview): 11-1 regular-season record. They note BYU should be favored in nearly every game except Notre Dame and recommend the over on 8.5 regular-season wins.
• ESPN FPI (Football Power Index): 8.7 projected wins (roughly 8.7–3.6 overall). Ranked No. 20 nationally / 2nd in Big 12; 16.5% chance to win the Big 12, 25.7% chance to make the CFP.
• ESPN SP+ (Bill Connelly’s final preseason rankings): Average of 8.8 regular-season wins. Ranked No. 21 overall.
• Athlon Sports: Projects BYU 2nd in the Big 12 (national ranking around 16); contender for another Big 12 Championship Game berth, but no exact win total specified in available details.

Here are my projections:

Utah beats Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State, Iowa State, Kansas, Colorado and West Virginia. They lose to Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, Arizona and TCU for a 7-5 finish.

Utah will have its moments, but the young offensive line and question marks at receiver will catch up with Scalley in his first season.

BYU beats Utah Tech, Arizona, Colorado State, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Utah, Baylor, Kansas, and Cincinnati and loses to UCF and TCU on the road.

UCF, because of what the Notre Dame game hype will cost them, and TCU because Fort Worth is traditionally a tough stop for the Cougars. Overall 10-2 finish.

So, there it is.

But what do we know? Utah could win 9 or 10 games, and the Cougars could very well win 11 or 12 if they get hot on the road.

What would be a surprise and be dope is if they face each other in the Big 12 championship game. Texas Tech will absolutely be there with an easy schedule without facing with the Utes or Cougars. They have a clear freeway from Lubbock to Arlington and their only stop will be Buc-ee’s.

My top teams to watch in the Big 12:

1. Texas Tech
2. BYU
3. Houston
4. Utah
5. Arizona
6. TCU