Potentially record-breaking heat wave in Pakistan is testing human limits

An early heat wave stretching through the Middle East and South Asia could cause areas of Pakistan to reach the global April heat record, and is testing the limits of human survivability.

Last weekend, the temperatures in central and southern Pakistan reached 118 degrees Fahrenheit and are forecast to rise through Wednesday, per The Washington Post. It is possible that the area will near the global April record of 122 degrees Fahrenheit.

The record was set in 2018 when Nawabshah, a city in southern Pakistan, reached that extreme heat level. Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera maintains a list of monthly global temperature extremes that lists Nawabshah’s 122 degrees as the record for April, at least in all of Asia.

According to The Washington Post, there was a reading of 124 degrees in Santa Rosa, Mexico, in 2001 that may not be reliable.

So far this month, temperatures have been more than 4 degrees above average in Pakistan, even before the arrival of the potentially record-breaking heat wave. Other countries such as Iraq, Iran, Niger, Turkmenistan and the United Arab Emirates have also seen above average temperatures this month.

What the heat wave will look like this week

The wave of excessive warmth in the Middle East and South Asia is being caused by a “sprawling dome of high pressure, like a heavy lid trapping heat in a pot,” according to The Washington Post.

These areas typically experience heat waves in summer months, but this heat wave has come earlier than normal, per CNN.

Heat wave conditions have been predicted by the Pakistan Meteorological Department from April 26-30. One of the most reliable weather models in the world, ECMWF, is predicting high temperatures around 120 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday in central Pakistan.

The same model underestimated last weekend’s high temperatures by around 2 to 3 degrees, meaning it’s possible that Pakistan will reach temperatures in the low 120s this week, per The Washington Post.

Temperatures over 110 degrees have been forecasted in 21 countries this week: Pakistan, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Mauritania, India, Iraq, Qatar, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Oman, South Sudan, Bahrain, Mali, Senegal, Chad, Ethiopia, Niger, Eritrea, Nigeria and Burkina Faso.

In the later part of the week, the heat is expected to move eastward toward China.

Early high heat levels test human limits of survivability

According to CNN, experts say the rising temperatures coming earlier in the year are testing human limits.

The arrival of early summer in India and Pakistan is testing the survivability limits of the people in these countries, putting huge strain on energy supplies, vital crops and livelihoods. Typically, both countries experience heat waves during the summer months of May and June, but this year’s heat wave season has come earlier than normal and is expected to last longer as well.

In recent decades, tens of thousands of people in India and Pakistan have been killed by extreme heat, per CNN. Climate experts say that by 2050, India will be one of the first places to go above human survivability limits.

Pregnant women and their unborn children are particularly at risk under heat wave conditions, with many babies being born preterm in the summer and with respiratory issues.

One major issue that comes with heat waves is persistent power outages, with areas losing power for up to 16 hours a day.

“This has intensified the impact of the heat, making it harder for people to cope,” said Ayoub Khosa, who lives in Pakistan, per CNN.

The increased demand for electricity can also lead to coal shortages, causing more people to be without power for longer periods of time.

It also causes problems for laborers and farmers, making it difficult to work; with a lack of drinking water, people fall sick, feel like vomiting or feel dizzy from the heat. It also causes issues for planting and harvesting crops, leading to lower yields.

The effects of heat waves are felt more strongly by people living in communities without access to cooling measures or adequate housing, per CNN.

What temperatures look like around the world

So far this month, 63% of the world has experienced above-average temperatures and the other 37% has experienced below-average temperatures, per The Washington Post. Around 116 countries have been affected by warmer-than-average conditions.

A strong El Niño caused 2024 to be a record-breaking warm year around the world, and this year’s La Niña event hasn’t done much to cool things down.

This year’s January to March period was the second-warmest on record for the world, behind only 2024, according to The Washington Post.