In the two years of a 12-team College Football Playoff format, the Big 12 is clearly behind its Power conference compatriots.
The league has produced two CFP teams over the past two years — both times it was the conference champion — and so far, the Big 12 is 0-2 under the current format.
Since the College Football Playoff came into existence on 2014 with a four-team format, the Big 12 is the only Power conference to not produce a national champion, while the Big Ten has four, the SEC six and the ACC two.
Big Ten schools have won the past three national championships, the SEC won four straight before that and though it’s been eight years since an ACC school won the title, Miami made the national championship game last year.
Can the Big 12 make some gains in the national perspective during the 2026 season?
This past week, ESPN released its initial rankings for the Football Power Index, a predictive measure designed to project a team’s performance, and the numbers show the kind of battle the Big 12 faces in trying to catch up to the other power leagues.
Big 12 teams in ESPN’s Football Power Index
Rank — Team — FPI score
- 10. Texas Tech — 20.0
- 20. BYU — 13.1
- 31. Utah — 8.5
- 34. Arizona — 7.2
- 35. Houston — 7.1
- 37. Baylor — 6.5
- 38. TCU — 6.4
- 41. Kansas State — 5.1
- 44. Arizona State — 4.8
- 45. Colorado — 4.5
- 46. Cincinnati — 4.4
- 54. Oklahoma State — 3.3
- 55. Kansas — 2.8
- 57. UCF — 2.1
- 66. West Virginia — 0.2
- 72. Iowa State — minus-0.9
What does ESPN’s FPI project for the Big 12 race?
Unlike last year when the FPI metrics had five teams with a 10% or better shot of winning the Big 12 going into the season, there are only two teams with 10% or better odds — defending champ Texas Tech at 45.9% and last year’s runner-up BYU at 16.5%.
Utah is next at 5.9%, while three others come in with 4% or better odds — Arizona (4.2%), Houston (4.1%) and TCU (4.0%).
Could the Big 12 be a top-heavy league this year? The FPI formula only has nine Big 12 schools with a 60% chance or better of winning six games and becoming bowl eligible.
What does ESPN’s FPI think of the Big 12’s College Football Playoff hopes?
Only three Big 12 schools have better than 10% odds to make this year’s CFP — Texas Tech leads the way at 57.9%, with BYU (25.7%) and Utah (11.1%) quite a ways behind the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech won the Big 12 a year ago and earned a bye to the CFP quarterfinals, but the Red Raiders fell 23-0 to Oregon in their playoff matchup.
By comparison, the SEC has 12 schools with better than 10% odds to make the College Football Playoff, the Big Ten has seven and the ACC has four, dwarfing the Big 12.
How does the Big 12 compare to Big Ten, SEC, ACC in ESPN’s FPI?
The Big 12 has only two teams in the FPI’s top 25 rankings, with five more added in the top 40.
The SEC takes up nearly half of the top 25 in the FPI formula, with 12, led by four in the top 10 in Texas (No. 2), Georgia (No. 5), Alabama (No. 8) and LSU (No. 9).
The Big Ten has seven teams in the FPI’s top 25, including the No. 1 team in Ohio State. Two other conference programs are in the top 10, including Oregon (No. 4) and defending national champion Indiana (No. 6).
The ACC, meanwhile, has three teams in the FPI’s top 25, including Miami in the top 10 at No. 7.
After Big 12 favorites Texas Tech and BYU, the league has nine teams come in between spots No. 31 and No. 46, showing the kind of parity that’s apparent in the league.
The SEC is the only conference with all of its members in the top 50 of the FPI’s rankings.
Even with all of its representation in the top 25, the Big Ten overall is the most-top heavy power league. There are seven Big Ten teams in the FPI’s rankings from No. 60 to No. 71, after 10 made the top 39.
The ACC also has the two lowest power conference schools in FPI’s formula. Stanford comes in at No. 80 and Boston College at No. 78 — that counterbalances the ACC having eight teams in the top 36 spots.
During the 2026 regular season, Big 12 schools will have 13 opportunities to face other power conference programs. Can they improve the league’s perception — and its odds to make national noise come playoff time?
