ESPN released its initial Football Power Index ratings for the 2026 college football season earlier this week, and for both Utah schools in the Big 12 — BYU and Utah — there is a positive outlook for the upcoming season.
Both the Cougars and Utes are expected to contend for the Big 12 Conference crown, and that is reflected in the FPI metrics.
As ESPN explains, the Football Power Index is “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.”
What ESPN’s FPI is projecting for BYU
BYU has a 13.1 score in ESPN’s FPI, which ranks No. 20 nationally and second in the Big 12.
- Projected wins — 8.7
- Odds of going undefeated — 1.4%
- Odds of six wins (and bowl eligibility) — 93.1%
- Odds of winning the Big 12 — 16.5%
- Odds of playing in the College Football Playoff — 25.7%
- Odds of making the national championship game — 2.2%
- Odds of winning a national championship — 0.7%
Last year, the Cougars were projected for 8.0 wins, with a 12.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
BYU ended up going 11-1 in the regular season, losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game and ending the year with a win in the Pop-Tarts Bowl to go 12-2 and finish ranked No. 11 in the final Associated Press poll.
This season, the Cougars have the Big 12’s second-best odds at winning the conference, at making the CFP and at reaching the national championship, all second to defending league champ Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have better than 50% odds to make the playoff (57.9%) and an 8.5% chance of reaching the national title game.
Strength of schedule — 55th
The Cougars’ strength of schedule is ninth among Big 12 programs.
By comparison, last year when BYU went 11-1 during the regular season, the Cougars were 74th in strength of schedule going into the season, with only one Big 12 team, Houston, lower.
The Cougars will host Notre Dame, No. 3 in the FPI rankings, on Oct. 17 in the premier nonconference game for the Big 12 this season.
As for conference games, BYU’s highest-rated opponent will be Utah, who is No. 31 in the FPI rankings — the Cougars play the Utes in Salt Lake City on Nov. 7.
BYU’s highest-rated Big 12 home opponent is No. 34 Arizona. The Cougars host the Wildcats on Sept. 12 in the league opener for both schools.
What ESPN’s FPI is projecting for Utah
Utah has a 8.5 score in ESPN’s FPI, which ranks No. 31 nationally and third in the Big 12.
- Projected wins — 7.7
- Odds of going undefeated — 0.4%
- Odds of six wins (and bowl eligibility) — 83.7%
- Odds of winning the Big 12 — 5.9%
- Odds of playing in the College Football Playoff — 11.1%
- Odds of making the national championship game — 0.6%
- Odds of winning a national championship — 0.2%
Last year, the Utes were projected for 6.4 wins, with a 67.3% chance of becoming bowl eligible in the FPI formula.
Utah, which was coming off a 5-7 season, blew past those projections, ending the year with an 11-2 record and a top 15 ranking.
Now, the Utes have the third-best odds in the league to win the Big 12 and are one of three conference teams with better than 10% odds to play their way into the CFP.
The only two standing above them are the two teams who played in the Big 12 championship game last year, Texas Tech and BYU.
Strength of schedule — 63rd
The Utes’ strength of schedule is 13th among Big 12 programs, a favorable number for a program returning several key players on both sides of the ball.
While Utah’s overall strength of schedule last season wasn’t much higher — the Utes were No. 58 by FPI’s metrics — Utah’s strength of schedule last season was sixth-highest in the Big 12, notably higher than this year.
Like BYU, Utah won’t face the conference’s highest-ranked team, No. 10 Texas Tech. The Utes’ highest-rated Big 12 opponent they’ll face is the No. 20 Cougars, at home on Nov. 7.
The Utes’ highest-rated Big 12 road opponent is the league team fourth in the FPI rankings, No. 34 Arizona. The Wildcats host Utah on Nov. 14.
In nonconference play, the toughest opponent for the Utes will be the SEC’s Arkansas, which is ranked No. 47 in the FPI. Utah hosts Arkansas on Sept. 12.