In 2014, the citizen initiative, Count My Vote, set out to dismantle the Utah Caucus system. The result was the landmark 2014 compromise, SB54, which created a dual path to the primary by allowing candidates to gather a required number of signatures. For most voters in Utah, you know why this matters.
In a recent article by Brigham Tomco of the Deseret News, a new poll of Utah voters indicated that only 10% participated in the latest state caucuses to elect local precinct leaders. The caucus system is a relic of the past and the epitome of party division. In today’s extreme political landscape, the intense activist energy of those who want to attend their caucus and become delegates is a turn-off. This results in a far-leaning turnout of those nominating candidates for the primary elections, as moderates and independents choose to stay far away.
These delegates met last weekend at party conventions. The Utah Democratic Party saw a record turnout ignited by the recent redistricting of Congressional District 1. As stated by Alixel Cabrera of Utah News Dispatch, “A hot competition for Utah’s blue 1st Congressional District brought out not only a crowd of candidates vying for the Democratic nomination, but also a hint of what felt more like Republicans’ rowdy energy during Democrats’ state convention.” Because of the redrawn maps, Democrats in the state have celebrated the idea that they now have a voice for the last six months. Unfortunately, the blue wave may only be an idea.
The new congressional district, as selected by Judge Dianna Gibson, puts Democrats at a 14-point advantage according to Inside Elections. This advantage is based on election results from the last four years. But is it fair to say this advantage is the credit of the Democrats in the new district? According to L2 voter data obtained by Bryan Schott of Utah Political Watch, District 1 remains 35% Republican, 33% Independent, 25% Democratic and 7% other. That would mean this Democratic advantage rests on the large number of independents in the district who previously viewed the Republican options as less attractive. For the Democrats to win District 1 this November, the party will need not only to stand behind someone capable of uniting it, but also someone who can carry the majority of the independent vote.
So now we fast-forward to this last weekend, when state delegates met to select their primary front-runner. Ben McAdams showed up to the convention leading the race with $1.5 million in donations. However, true to form in Utah, the delegates decided to lean further toward the edge of the political spectrum with Liban Mohamed, a self-described progressive Democrat, who is pushing a $20 minimum wage, universal Medicare, universal childcare and paid parental leave.
Even if the Democratic Party unites behind Liban Mohamed, they would still have to convince the majority of the district’s independent voters to back a progressive Democrat who they feel may not represent their views. The long road to victory for Liban Mohamed is rough and rocky. I would predict that if Liban Mohamed were appearing on the ballot alone, he would lose in the general election. But thanks to SB54 and the signature route to the ballot, Democratic voters still have hope, as the primary ticket will be split among Mohamed, McAdams, Nate Blouin and Michael Farrell.
Mohamed now has convention momentum and progressive energy behind him. You pair that with his recent endorsement from Ilhan Omar, and you may see a strong turnout for the convention nominee. Considering the fact that McAdams also has baggage, having been painted as too conservative by the progressive wing, that label could stick with primary voters. And with Farrell also in the race, splitting the progressive vote, it’s not a clean two-way race.
Let’s also consider the much cleaner Republican race. Riley Owen is a 27-year-old moderate Republican from Salt Lake City. He has degrees from Princeton and Oxford in international affairs and public policy, worked as a White House staffer on industrial policy, serves as a Navy Reserve intelligence officer and runs Doers Network as CEO. Riley Owen came out of the convention with 71% of the delegate vote. Since the other candidates didn’t qualify with the needed number of signatures, he is already the automatic Republican nominee for the general election.
Even with the newly drawn congressional maps, District 1 may very well still have a Republican take the seat if it comes down to who is most capable of securing the independent vote. In a race between Liban Mohamed and Riley Owen, one is more likely than the other to swing those needed middle voters. The real race would be between Ben McAdams and Riley Owen. In that case, Democrats will be very grateful for the 2014 compromise of SB54.