Primary and polling results clearly document frustration among Americans, across both parties, with incumbent officeholders. Surveys indicate a similar angst among Utah voters. Your columnists explore the ramifications.
A recent poll by the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics indicates that for the first time in history, Utah’s governor is underwater. The two major statewide candidates, Sens. Mike Lee and John Curtis, also have disapproval ratings higher than approval. President Donald Trump‘s approval has even dropped in Utah. What is happening in this red state to cause such numbers?
Cowley: Voters cast a wide net of frustrations over affordability issues. They feel betrayed by Trump. He’s reneged or fallen short on nearly every campaign promise. No foreign wars, lower egg prices, curbing inflation, paying down the national debt and the list goes on. Gov. Spencer Cox, Lee and Curtis either endorse Trump or are generally seen as supportive of his policies. Therefore, some see them as complicit in his bait-and-switch policy outcomes.
Cox’s approval fell 10 percentage points; Lee fell eight points; Curtis fell by five points; and the Legislature fell by six points. This is more than a margin of error fluctuation. It’s a pretty significant amount in a short period of time.
The most likely culprits are the Stratos Project data center discourse and a do-nothing Congress that seems to rubber-stamp Trump’s agenda. This trio of lawmakers has been in office for a hot minute. Voters feel their own lives are getting worse, not better, and are looking for someone to blame. Luckily for all three, none of them are on the ballot this November.
History shows the incumbent party suffers during midterms. The question is whether this follows historical trends or signals a more global shift.
Pignanelli: “2026 is producing unusual and potentially revealing electoral outcomes that underscore voter restlessness across the political spectrum.” — James Ellis, political analyst
Approval ratings are like weather vanes; they turn quickly as external forces shift direction. For decades, statewide election results for Republicans were consistent, ranging from 58% to 65%, unless a strong independent was competing.
Approval ratings are usually below ballot tallies. But, the fact that all three of these officeholders are below 50% in voter satisfaction cannot be ignored. None are facing an ethical or personal crisis. They have been engaged, through different activities, with the public. Yet, their numbers even dropped among the GOP faithful.
This further emphasizes that Utah politics are becoming increasingly nationalized. Bipartisan and independents’ frustration with the president, Congress, the economy, artificial intelligence, military action, etc., is blemishing these officials. Depending on what happens in the midterm elections and the status of the critical issues, they will need to adjust their messaging to shift the political winds.
There is a national trend of anti-incumbent sentiment from both parties manifesting in summer primary elections. Are Americans sharing the same frustration with Utah incumbents? Could this affect Utah’s elections in November?
Cowley: Should down-ballot incumbent Republicans in the 1st Congressional District lose, it will be hard to parse out if they got swept up in the anti-incumbent fervor or were victims of having a popular, well-funded Democrat at the top of the ticket. Despite sinking approval ratings, most Republican legislators seeking reelection across the state can coast into November for an easy “W.” When you’re the only movie theater in town, it really doesn’t matter how stale your popcorn is. Much to Democrats’ dismay, Utah remains a solidly red state, at least until the minority party can coalesce around a coherent platform.
For legislative incumbents, voters’ misplaced vexation is especially unfair since they have little to no authority to thwart global economic trends, voters’ No. 1 concern. Their plunging approval ratings are more attributable to frustrations with Trump’s broken promises than their own actions. Think of it like trickle-down politics.
Democratic voters are invigorated that a Democrat will once again represent the Beehive State in Congress, yet there isn’t much excitement down ballot. Party leaders aren’t cultivating support statewide because they aren’t championing issues that matter locally, opting instead to adopt the national party platform, a continued tactical error.
Pignanelli: 2026 is an unbelievably strange year. The disapproval ratings for the president and the economy work to the Republican disadvantage. But turmoil is brewing inside the Democratic Party between socialists and moderates. This dysfunction within the parties has weakened, and often defeated, incumbents this summer.
Utah’s congressional districts are so lopsided that results are already baked. But the anti-incumbent fever could affect the swing legislative and county races. In early November, we will learn if the national anti-incumbent grumpiness is spilling into the Beehive State.
Will this anti-incumbent trend last and could it affect federal and state legislative deliberations in the near future?
Cowley: Savvy politicians will position themselves as anti-establishment to offer reforms and fresh perspectives. Ironically, this is how Trump came into power.
Legislators should be cautious about promising change in areas where they cannot reasonably move the needle. Broken promises are why Trump is now losing power.
Pignanelli: Bills are already open on data centers and other hot-topic issues because of the heat incumbents suffered in the primaries. The November elections will further amplify national and state policy discussions as the results will be perceived as mandates.